Gold weekly outlook (w/c 16 Nov): coiling 3,868–3,890, with the GoldOANDA:XAUUSDF0rexBorexGold closed the week at 3,884.69 (−4.6%) after opening at 4,061.89 and spiking to 4,148.71 on Monday. It sold off to 3,852.58 on Thursday, swept the 3,870.32 swing low and reclaimed it. Friday traded 3,867.67–3,923.09 and closed mid-range. The market is coiling, so this week is about which side of 3,868–3,890 breaks first. TOP-DOWN • Daily: ranging 3,870.32–4,217.40. Low swept and reclaimed, but the close is still far below the 50 EMA (about 4,130). A daily bear FVG (3,923–3,983) sits above, unfilled. • 4H: bearish, with lower highs 4,148.71 then 3,923.09. Unfilled bear FVGs at 3,909–3,925 and 3,956–3,970. • 1H: ranging 3,867.67–3,923.09. Rising lows (3,852.58 → 3,867.67) against falling highs (3,955.77 → 3,923.09 → 3,905.32) form a coil. • 15m: ranging 3,867.67–3,905.97, bear FVG 3,907–3,914 unfilled. • Fib of Friday's leg (3,923.09 → 3,867.67): 38.2% 3,901.92, 50% 3,895.38, 61.8% 3,888.84, 78.6% 3,879.53. • No unfilled bullish FVGs below price, so there is little structural support under 3,852. THE TWO TRADES AND THEIR ODDS Odds are from a ten-year test of gold (2016–2026, 15-minute bars, about 109,000 simulated breakout entries). Each simulated trade used the same stop and target distances as the levels below, scaled to the gold price at the time. A stop-entry was assumed to fill at its level with no slippage, and a trade that hit stop and target in the same bar counted as a loss. 🟢 BUY BREAKOUT: entry 3,890, stop 3,877 (about 13 points), TP1 3,905, TP2 3,920 • Chance the entry triggers within a week: about 95% • Reaches TP1 before the stop: about 46% • Reaches TP2 before the stop: about 32% • Stops out first: about 54% • With a 13-point stop and a 15-point first target, TP1 is close to a coin flip. TP2 pays more but is hit about one time in three. • Against the 4H slope and the daily trend, so a clean close above 3,890 is needed. 🔴 SELL BREAKDOWN: entry 3,868.38, stop 3,881 (about 13 points), TP1 3,855, TP2 3,840 • Chance the entry triggers within a week: about 80% • Reaches TP1 before the stop: about 37% • Reaches TP2 before the stop: about 23% • Stops out first: about 63% • The sell does worse in the test than the buy because gold rose over most of those ten years. This setup is with the 4H and daily trend, which the test does not capture. HOW TO READ THESE NUMBERS • These are base rates for a breakout with this stop and target size, not a forecast. They treat every day the same and ignore this week's news. • My own ten-year tests found level trades like these land close to a coin flip once the stop is that tight, and nothing I tested reliably told winners from losers. • Because the stop is tight against the target, the edge comes from sizing and from filtering for a clean candle close beyond the level, not from the level alone. • A trade can only be valid when price crosses the level. Both entries are stop-entries (buy above, sell below), and price at the Friday close (3,884.69) sits between them. PLAN 1. Let price pick the side. A close above 3,890 gives the buy, with 3,905 then 3,920 first. A close below 3,868.38 gives the sell, with 3,855 then 3,840 first. 2. Between 3,868 and 3,890 is the coil: no edge in the middle. 3. If the buy breaks and then fails back under 3,888, treat it as a failed breakout and watch the sell. 4. The bearish bias is wrong on a daily close above 3,983. Levels above: 3,905, 3,908, 3,920, 3,942, 3,950, 3,966, 3,985, 4,000, 4,040, 4,125, 4,150, 4,170, 4,180, 4,205. Levels below: 3,855, 3,840, 3,822, 3,809, 3,788, 3,740, 3,700, 3,650, 3,600, 3,570, 3,518, 3,500. NEWS THIS WEEK (UK/Irish time = GMT; US data at 13:30) • Mon 13:30: Canada CPI (high). 17:00: Fed Chair Warsh speaks (high), plus Fed's Williams (14:05) and Barr (10:00). 22:50: RBA Governor Bullock. • Tue 07:00: UK wages. 13:30: US Retail Sales (forecast +0.2%, previous +0.8%) and Core Retail Sales (forecast +0.4%, previous +0.9%), both high. Fed's Musalem, Waller, Hammack and Williams speak. • Wed 07:00: UK CPI y/y (forecast 3.6%, previous 3.5%, high), BoE Governor Bailey 07:30 and 15:00. 14:25 Lagarde. 19:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes (high). • Thu 00:30: Australia jobs (high). 13:30: Philadelphia Fed (forecast 19.2), US jobless claims (forecast 199K), Lagarde. • Fri 07:00: UK retail sales. 13:25: Fed's Waller. 15:00: UoM consumer sentiment (forecast 52.1) and inflation expectations (previous 4.3%). • No US CPI or NFP this week. The main gold risks are Warsh (Mon), US Retail Sales (Tue) and the FOMC Minutes (Wed evening). • Gold reopens Sunday 23:00 and closes Friday 22:00, so gaps through the entry levels are possible at the open. Expect spikes through the levels on the Retail Sales and Minutes releases. Smaller size, or flat into the release, is sensible. Prices are TradingView (OANDA) levels; other brokers can differ by a few points. This is my own analysis for educational purposes, not financial advice. Trade your own plan and manage your risk.