Brent +2.96% bounce to 95.51: 89.15 floor, 98.32 lidBrent Crude FuturesICEEUR_DLY:BRN1!ForexupgoBrent is up 2.96% early Friday at 95.51. The Friday bar is young and can still move. What happened Brent was at 117.64 on 30 Oct (20-day high 118.0). Then came the reset: 104.77 on 2 Nov and a low of 89.15 on 10 Nov. Over 5 sessions it is -2.83%, over 20 days -9.83%. Today is the first real bounce since that low. What I see Price is still far below both averages: the 21 MA sits at 105.82 and is sloping down, the 50 MA at 104.25. A bounce under falling averages is a bounce inside a downtrend until the chart says otherwise. The 15-day box runs from 89.15 to 118.0, so there is a lot of air in both directions. What I'm watching • Lid: 98.32, the 6 Nov close. A daily close above it would be the first real repair. • Floor: 89.15, the 10 Nov low. A hold keeps the range alive; a daily close below it opens the next leg down. • 21 MA at 105.82: the bigger test if the lid breaks. Calendar/risk No calendar items in my data for the next 48 hours. Oil is moving in big daily swings, so a rules-based approach waits for the close, not the wick. Reclaim 98.32 or back to the 89.15 floor? Not financial advice.