(Oil & Gas 360) – Alaska’s crude oil production is expected to increase 13% in 2027, reaching its highest level in more than a decade as new North Slope developments begin contributing substantial volumes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The forecast represents a significant turnaround for a state that has experienced decades of declining production despite holding some of the nation’s largest conventional petroleum resources.In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projects Alaska’s crude oil output will increase by approximately 60,000 barrels per day in 2027 to an average of 505,000 barrels per day, the highest annual level since 2014. Production is also expected to rise by 23,000 barrels per day, or 6%, in 2026, reflecting the contribution of new projects and improving operating activity.Two developments are driving much of the anticipated growth: ConocoPhillips’ Nuna project and the Pikka Phase 1 development operated by Australia’s Santos in partnership with Repsol. Both are located on Alaska’s North Slope, where established petroleum infrastructure provides access to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System and downstream markets.ConocoPhillips began production at Nuna in December 2024, with output averaging approximately 10,000 barrels per day during 2026. The project is designed to reach peak production of approximately 20,000 barrels per day and is contributing additional volumes that help offset declines from mature fields.The larger production contribution is expected from Pikka Phase 1, which began producing oil in May 2026. Output reached approximately 38,000 barrels per day by September, with production expected to increase toward a peak of 80,000 barrels per day during the winter of 2026–2027. The project represents one of Alaska’s most important new conventional oil developments in recent years.The EIA reported that Alaska’s third-quarter 2026 production increased 4% from the same period a year earlier, marking the state’s first third-quarter production increase in more than four decades. If the agency’s forecasts are realized, the gains would represent an important reversal of the long-term decline that followed Alaska’s production peak of approximately 2 million barrels per day in the late 1980s.The outlook also carries implications for the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, which has experienced declining throughput as North Slope production diminished. Additional barrels could improve pipeline utilization and help distribute certain fixed transportation costs across larger volumes, although operating economics will continue to depend on production levels and infrastructure requirements.For energy investors, Alaska’s improving outlook highlights the potential value of large conventional developments supported by existing infrastructure. ConocoPhillips, Santos and their partners stand to benefit from additional production, although project economics remain sensitive to crude prices, operating costs, transportation expenses and development schedules.Nationally, the EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will reach a record 14.3 million barrels per day in 2027. Alaska’s contribution remains relatively modest compared with the Lower 48, but the projected growth demonstrates how new investment can extend the productive life of established petroleum regions.The longer-term question is whether Alaska can sustain production growth beyond the initial contributions from Nuna and Pikka while attracting sufficient capital for additional North Slope development.About Oil & Gas 360 Oil & Gas 360 is an energy-focused news and market intelligence platform delivering analysis, industry developments, and capital markets coverage across the global oil and gas sector. The publication provides timely insight for executives, investors, and energy professionals. Disclaimer This informational, opinion, and insights article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available information and market conditions at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice.