Meanwhile in the other war, the Wall Street Journal, citing officials, reports on a potential diplomatic opening between the US and Iran led by VP Vance:“A direct meeting between the Vice President JD Vance and top Iranian security officials would be unusual and show the lengths Vance is willing to go to try to end the war.”US President Trump has told top aides and counterparts he's open to VP Vance restarting talks with Iran and has empowered him to negotiate, according to sources, who add discussions remain preliminary.US VP Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official as he emerges as the lead negotiator with Iran, in an effort to end a war seen as a drag on the Republican Party.Analysis:The key here is the reported backing from Trump. Giving Vance authority to negotiate could create an opening for more direct discussions. However, “considering” and “preliminary” remain the important qualifiers. There is no confirmed meeting or agreement in the supplied report.For traders, credible progress toward ending the war would potentially weigh on crude oil’s geopolitical risk premium and support broader risk appetite. The next barometer is whether Iran agrees to meet and whether those discussions produce concrete commitments. The headline opens the door. Follow-through will determine how much confidence markets can put behind it.Are Kushner and Steve Witkoff?I wouldn’t call Kushner and Steve Witkoff “out” yet. The WSJ reports that Vance has become more active on Iran than the two envoys, who are also handling Russia–Ukraine negotiations. That points to a shift in responsibility, without confirming their removal. My read is that Trump is putting more political weight behind the Iran channel. A vice president with authority to negotiate could give Tehran more confidence that proposals have direct White House backing. It also puts more responsibility on Vance to deliver. Remember Vance blamed the Republican election defeat on the war. It would not be out of the ordinary for Trump to therefore say, "Well if that what you think, you go get a peace deal". If Vance gets one, Trump takes credit. If he can't Vance gets the blame. For the post, I’d frame it this way: “Vance’s emergence suggests a shift in who is driving the negotiations. Elevating the talks to the vice-presidential level could help move difficult decisions forward, but a change in negotiator alone does not mean the two sides are closer to an agreement.” This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.