Gold breaks 4013, double top confirmed – sell 4005–10 retestGoldOANDA:XAUUSDToan_AlphaDAILY PLAN | XAUUSD Nov 11 plan: the SELL 4053–4058 setup triggered at 05:00 ET (after a bearish H1 engulfing candle closed at 4050.62) and hit TP1 4033, TP2 4021 and TP3 3999. Double top at 4149 confirmed, gold breaks 4013: sell the retest of the broken zone Reference data at 18:25 ET on Nov 11: price around 3986. Yesterday gold bounced to 4067.10, then reversed, broke the 4013.64 low and closed the daily candle at 3987.70. A new low printed at 3981.22 overnight. Today's D1 candle has just opened and is not a close. 1. Market structure Today's bias: Down, because D1 made a lower high at 4067.10 after the 4148.71 top and closed at 3987.70, below the 4013.64 low and below the 4029.83 neckline; H4 keeps printing lower highs and lower lows. - D1: two strong down sessions in a row (Nov 10 close 4032.52, Nov 11 close 3987.70). The Nov 11 bounce stalled at 4067.10 and was sold, a clear lower high. - H4: lower highs 4148.71 → 4067.10, lower lows 4013.64 → 3981.22. The H4 candle opened at 09:00 ET yesterday closed at 3993.22, below 4013–4018. - H1: bounce highs keep shrinking 4018.74 → 4006.98 → 3995.22 → 3991.40, price is drifting just above the 3981.22 low. Priority is to SELL a pullback into 4005–4010, the broken former low. BUY 3966–3971 is a counter-trend backup only, used if strong support holds and H1 confirms a structure break. Do not chase shorts near the 3981 low. 2. Pattern An H4 double top at 4146.92 (Nov 5) and 4148.71 (Nov 10) with the neckline at 4029.83 (Nov 6) is confirmed: both D1 and H4 closed below the neckline and below the 4013.64 low. The pattern height is about 119 points, giving a measured objective near 3911, for reference only, not a target. The pattern fails on an H4 close back above 4030. 3. Key levels Resistance: - 4005–4019 (strong resistance): Oct 29 D1 low 4005.36, the broken 4013.64 low, H1 high 4018.74. - 3991–3995: H1 bounce highs 3991.06, 3991.40 and 3995.22. Support: - 3975–3982: new low 3981.22, Oct 23 D1 low 3975.65 and Oct 26 D1 low 3978.18. - 3964–3971 (strong support): Nov 2–4 highs 3970.31, 3970.16, 3971.36, 3964.74, 3964.62. - 3943–3947: Nov 3 D1 close 3946.74, H4 low 3943.12. 4. Main scenarios Plan 1: SELL 4005–4010 (with trend, priority) Trigger: price pulls back into 4005–4010 and a bearish H1 pin bar or engulfing candle closes below 4010. Enter only on a return to the zone after confirmation; no return, no trade. Entry: 4005–4010 Stop loss: 4020 TP1: 3985 | TP2: 3974 | TP3: 3950 R:R from worst entry 4005, risk 15 points: TP1 1:1.33 | TP2 1:2.07 | TP3 1:3.67 Stop above the 4018.74 H1 high. TP1 ahead of 3975–3982 support, TP2 ahead of 3964–3971, TP3 ahead of 3943–3947. Plan 2: BUY 3966–3971 (counter-trend) Trigger: price reaches 3966–3971 with no H1 close below 3964, a bullish H1 candle closes, then H1 breaks the nearest swing high of the drop into the zone. Buy only on a pullback to 3966–3971 after confirmation. A touch alone is not enough. Entry: 3966–3971 Stop loss: 3957 TP1: 3988 | TP2: 3996 | TP3: 4002 R:R from worst entry 3971, risk 14 points: TP1 1:1.21 | TP2 1:1.79 | TP3 1:2.21 Stop below the 3964 cluster. TP1 ahead of 3991–3995 resistance, TP2 ahead of the 3998.50–3998.64 H1 lows, TP3 capped before 4005–4019 strong resistance because this is a counter-trend trade. 5. Scenario switch levels - H4 close below 3964: sellers break another support layer. Drop BUY 3966–3971; next objective 3943–3947, then the 3911–3920 area. - H4 close above 4020: price reclaims the broken low. Drop SELL 4005–4010; a further H4 close above 4030 invalidates the double top. What if I'm wrong: if price pushes through the sell zone and H4 closes above 4020, don't keep selling. Watch the 4029–4033 neckline: a rejection there brings the short idea back, an H4 close above 4030 means stand aside and wait for new structure. 6. Invalidation - SELL: an H4 close above 4020 cancels the short thesis. Stop loss 4020 is the hard stop if filled. - BUY: an H4 close below 3964 cancels the long thesis. Stop loss 3957 is the hard stop if filled. 7. Conclusion Priority is a SELL on a pullback into 4005–4010 with an H1 rejection. BUY 3966–3971 is only a short counter-trend trade if strong support holds and H1 breaks structure. Both are conditional setups, not market orders. Today's news (Forex Factory): US Unemployment Claims at 08:30 ET (medium impact; forecast 194K, previous 189K). Tomorrow, Nov 13, PPI and Core PPI at 08:30 ET (high impact). Expect sharp moves around the release. Check the spread before placing orders. Lesson: a double top only counts once the neckline breaks on a close. The cleanest short usually comes on the pullback into the broken zone, not on the breakout candle itself. Note: This is a personal technical view, not investment advice. Entry, SL and TP levels are for reference only. Traders should assess their own risk, manage position size and wait for confirmation before acting.