Brent -12.88% in 20 days: 89.15 floor, 106.31 lidBrent Crude FuturesICEEUR_DLY:BRN1!ForexupgoBrent has fallen from a 118.00 high on 30 Oct to a 89.15 low on 10 Nov. Over 20 days it is down 12.88%. What happened • 30 Oct: 118.00 high, the top of the 15-day box. • 2 Nov: opened at 111.84 and closed at 104.77, the first big step down. • 4 Nov: low of 93.40, close 94.62. • 10 Nov: low of 89.15, close 91.49. • 12 Nov: the candle has just opened at 92.40, +0.99% on the day. It is early and can still move. What I see Price sits 13.08% under the 21 MA at 106.31 and 11.36% under the 50 MA at 104.24. The 21 MA slopes down, the 50 MA still slopes up. All of the last five closes are below the 50 MA. Bounces so far have stalled around the 98.42 high of 9 Nov and the 99.25 high of 5 Nov. What I'm watching • 89.15 holds: Brent stays in a range between that floor and 98.42. • Close below 89.15: the 85.48 low from 26 Aug is the next reference on the chart. • Reclaim of 98.42: the 50 MA at 104.24 and the 21 MA at 106.31 come into view. Calendar/risk: no calendar items in my data for the next 48 hours. Oil has moved in big daily ranges lately, so a rules-based plan sizes for that. Does 89.15 hold, or does 98.42 reject the next bounce? Not financial advice.