Crude Oil (CL) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Thu (Nov 12)Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX:CL1!MyAlgoIndexBias: The December crude contract settled at 86.53 on Wednesday, up 0.49 or 0.57 percent, its first higher settle after two lower settles. The session traded between 88.74 and 85.81, a higher high and a higher low against Tuesday, and the 2.93 point range was the narrowest since 10/30/26. The low printed in the 4:00 AM ET bar and the 88.74 high in the 10:00 AM ET bar, the highest level since 11/09/26. The contract then gave back most of the gain: the 12:00 PM ET bar fell 0.88 and the 2:00 PM ET bar fell 0.87 to 86.40, and the settle finished at 24.6 percent of the range. From 2:26 PM ET the news feed carried press reports that the US Vice President is considering direct talks with a senior Iranian official; that decline and those reports coincided. The provider's market commentary attributed the early gain to short covering as US and Iran talks stalled, which is attributed commentary. Brent's January contract rose 1.39 percent to 92.76 and heating oil 1.95 percent, while gasoline slipped 0.05 percent and the dollar index rose 0.67 percent to 102.91. After the settle, the news feed carried a statement attributed to an Iranian military official that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The composite multi-indicator read is 24 percent sell with minimum strength, from 32 percent sell a session earlier, and negative direction leads on both directional systems. The settle sits beneath the 5-day, 9-day, 20-day and 50-day settlement averages, the 20-day for an eighth session, and above the 100-day and 200-day. In this review's interpretation the bias is neutral to lower beneath Pivot R1 at 88.24, with a rebound toward that level the more likely first test and a stall beneath Wednesday's 88.74 high the base case. The weekly government petroleum report, delayed by the holiday, is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. Resistance: - 89.96 Pivot R2 - 88.85 one standard deviation resistance - 88.74 Wednesday's session high - 88.33 stall of the 14-day %K line - 88.24 Pivot R1 - 88.15 5-day settlement average - 87.49 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low - 87.03 Pivot Point Support: - 86.53 Wednesday's settle - 86.13 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low - 85.81 Wednesday's session low - 85.31 Pivot S1 - 84.21 one standard deviation support - 84.10 Pivot S2 - 83.88 one-month low - 82.38 Pivot S3 Primary Setup: SHORT the December contract from the 87.80 to 88.10 band, between the Pivot Point at 87.03 and Pivot R1 at 88.24. Stop 88.80, above Wednesday's 88.74 high and beneath one standard deviation resistance at 88.85. Targets at 87.10 first, above the Pivot Point, 86.25 second, beneath the 86.53 settle and above the 86.13 retracement, and 85.40 third, above Pivot S1 at 85.31. Risk to reward is roughly 1:1 to the first objective, 1:2 to the second and 1:3 to the third from the entry midpoint. The 14-day average true range is 4.35 points against a 0.85 point stop distance. A settle above Wednesday's 88.74 high negates the thesis; two consecutive 30-minute closes above 88.10 remove the edge before the stop is reached. A government report showing a large crude draw, a further statement that the Strait stays closed, or reports that talks with Iran have broken down can carry price through the stop in one move, which makes this an analyst judgment that rebounds toward Pivot R1 are sold. All levels are the December contract's. Wednesday's 86.53 settle sat in the lower quarter of a range that reached the highest level since 11/09/26. In this review's interpretation Thursday is a test of whether a rebound stalls beneath the 88.24 to 88.74 band into the 12:00 PM ET government report, or whether the decline could extend through Wednesday's 85.81 low toward Pivot S2 at 84.10.