Trading Plan and Analysis - #XAUUSD 12/11/2026GoldOANDA:XAUUSDfntradinglabH1 Timeframe The post-election rally has been decisively reversed. October CPI printed at 0.4% month-on-month versus a 0.3% forecast, and markets interpreted it as a green light for December tightening. December hike odds jumped to 100% for at least a 25bp move, with 13.2% probability of a 50bp hike after Fed Governor Waller said a core reading of 0.3% would prompt him to consider the larger increment. Gold fell nearly 3% on Tuesday, extended the selloff Wednesday, and is now trading at $3,978 – back below the $4,000 psychological level for the second time in two weeks. The chart reflects the structural damage clearly. Price peaked at $4,148 on Monday, then the CHOCH H1 on Tuesday confirmed the reversal. The OB H1 at 4,055 – 4,070 that had been flagged as the key support failed to hold, and price broke through it and the $4,000 zone in quick succession. A BOS H1 has now printed to the downside, confirming the short-term trend has reverted bearish. The midterm-driven rally lasted six sessions before being fully retraced by one CPI print – a stark reminder that the macro driver here is real yields and Fed policy, not technical levels. TD Securities has flagged $3,900 as the next support target, and central bank buying has been cited as the reason the floor has held at similar levels in recent weeks. That central bank bid is likely to be tested again at the gap H1 zone visible on the left side of the chart around $3,970 – $3,990. My view has reverted to bearish. The behavior pattern is now well-established: gold rallies on soft macro (midterms, oil pullback, weak NFP) and gets sold on hard macro (hot CPI, hot PPI, strong NFP). Until December FOMC is behind us, every bounce is a potential sell. The question is not whether gold will face pressure from December expectations, but how deep the next leg goes. 🔴 SELL SCENARIO (primary) Zone to watch: 4,000 – 4,015 (broken $4,000 level / previous OB H1 base) Confirms if: a bounce into this zone stalls with a bearish CHOCH on M15/M30 Invalidates if: H1 close back above 4,025 🔴 SELL SCENARIO (deeper retest) Zone to watch: 4,055 – 4,070 (broken OB H1) Confirms if: a stronger bounce into this zone is rejected with a bearish H1 CHOCH Invalidates if: H1 close above 4,080 🟢 BUY SCENARIO (counter-trend) Zone to watch: 3,960 – 3,980 (current area / approaching prior support) Confirms if: sharp displacement back above $4,000 with a bullish M15 CHOCH Invalidates if: H1 close below 3,955 On key levels, near resistance is 4,000 – 4,015, further resistance at 4,055 – 4,070. Near support is 3,960 – 3,975 currently being tested, then TD Securities’ $3,900 target, then the gap H1 zone at $3,886 – 3,890 that held as the floor in late October. A break below $3,870 on a daily close would fully undo the midterm bounce and resume the downtrend from September. This week still has PPI data due, which could add another directional push depending on the number. This reflects a personal view and technical read from FN Trading Lab based on current market structure, not financial advice or a specific buy/sell recommendation. Please watch price reaction at the levels mentioned and make your own decisions in line with your own strategy.