BTC: Turn at the 74.4K VWAP or Drop to 68KBitcoin / TetherUS PERPETUAL CONTRACTBINANCE:BTCUSDT.Pmaxi_ontiI got stopped out on today's CPI crash. Here's where I think BTC stands now on the weekly. Key level: the anchored VWAP from the 57K bottom, now around 74.4K I've been pointing at this level for weeks, and price is losing it. It's the same line on the weekly. A wick below is fine, and that happened last cycle too, but the weekly candle needs to close back above it. The case for a turn • Price action today was clearly very weak, but massive open interest came in during the sell-off, which could be fuel to the upside. • The longs are wiped out after a string of sweeps lower. • Almost all of the liquidity left is shorts sitting above price. • Sentiment is terrible. The counter case • Price is in the golden pocket of the 64K to 87K move, but I don't trust the 0.618 to hold. • The run from 64K to 78K was a single weekly candle, so there's a huge imbalance underneath with little real support in it. Scenarios • Bullish: the weekly closes back above the VWAP, and the short liquidity above fuels the move. • Bearish: the VWAP is lost on a weekly close, and my first target is the 200W EMA around 68K. It has to turn now. Side note: I think XRP is a great spot buy here. It's cheap and the risk/reward is excellent, even if a BTC flush gives us one more lower low first. Not financial advice.