Rate hikes by year-endFed: 28 bps (88% probability of 25 bps rate hike at the next meeting; 12% of 50 bps hike)2027: 88 bpsBoE: 21 bps (85% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)2027: 94 bpsRBNZ: 20 bps (82% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)2027: 83 bpsECB: 20 bps (82% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)2027: 71 bpsBoJ: 19 bps (76% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)2027: 78 bpsBoC: 16 bps (64% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)2027: 75 bpsSNB: 5 bps (82% probability of no change at the next meeting)2027: 63 bpsRBA: 1 bps (94% probability of no change at the next meeting)2027: 18 bps of rate cutsThe 2027 pricing indicates the total amount of tigthening expected by the end of 2027, not how much is expected in 2027 alone.The Fed has seen the most significant hawkish repricing this week, driven by Fed Governor Waller's hawkish remarks and the hotter than expected US inflation data. Waller said he would support a 25 bps rate hike in December even if inflation improved, while warning that a 50 bps increase could be necessary if inflation surprised to the upside. October CPI subsequently came in above expectations, with headline inflation rising 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected and core CPI increasing 0.3% vs 0.2% expected. The increased US-Iran tensions have added to inflation concerns through the energy channel, reinforcing the hawkish pricing.The BoE saw a hawkish repricing after the better than expected UK GDP data and some hawkish remarks from MPC members. The BoE already raised rates by 25 bps to 4% at the last meeting, with an 8–1 vote. One member even favoured a larger 50 bps increase.The main driver remains the inflation outlook. UK CPI accelerated to 3.5% in September, and the BoE expects inflation to approach 5% by mid-2027 as higher energy prices feed through the economy. The stronger than expected activity data and persistent domestic inflation pressures have also strengthened the case for further tightening. The prolonged US-Iran conflict just adds another layer of upside risk to inflation expectations. The RBNZ unexpectedly kept rates unchanged at 2.75% in October, in a 4–3 vote, despite markets fully pricing a rate hike. The decision reflected concerns about economic uncertainty and the need to assess the effects of previous tightening. Nevertheless, the central bank maintained a tightening bias. Inflation remains above its 1–3% target range. Higher fuel prices and broader underlying inflation pressures could require further tightening. The latest increase in geopolitical tensions adds to those risks.The ECB has also seen a slightly hawkish repricing amid increasingly hawkish communication from policymakers. ECB's Žigman recently described another December rate hike as a strong possibility, while cautioning that policymakers need more data before deciding. The risk of higher energy prices feeding into wages and broader price-setting behaviour remains a major concern.The BoJ hawkish repricing was driven by the central bank's increasingly confident assessment that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target. Governor Ueda recently signalled that the December meeting would include a discussion about another rate increase, suggesting that the BoJ is becoming more comfortable with further policy normalisation.Additionally, Japanese inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target, partly reflecting the impact of higher energy prices. However, there are still divisions within the BoJ, with some policymakers warning that further tightening could undermine the economic recovery. The BoC is also expected to deliver another rate hike at the next meeting, despite the economic data showing no urgency whatsoever. The central bank already delivered its first rate hike since July 2023 in October, taking the policy rate to 2.5%. The decision reflected a deterioration in the inflation outlook, with persistently elevated oil prices and increasing evidence that businesses will eventually pass higher input costs on to consumers.The BoC also revised its inflation outlook higher, expecting CPI inflation to average around 3% in 2027. Governor Macklem acknowledged that further tightening might be necessary, although policymakers intend to proceed cautiously given the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook.The SNB remains the least hawkish central bank given limited signs of acceleration in underlying inflation. Although headline inflation has increased due to higher energy prices, the SNB has previously stressed that medium-term inflationary pressures remain relatively contained. There is also little evidence of second-round effects, meaning higher energy prices have not yet translated into broader and more persistent inflation. The Swiss franc's safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical uncertainty also provides some additional protection against imported inflation. For the RBA markets are not pricing any more rate hikes, on the contrary, traders started to price in rate cuts in 2027. The RBA already raised rates 5 times this year, taking the Cash Rate from 3.60% to 4.85% in November. At the last meeting, three members voted against the increase as the appetite for further tightening faded amid softer labour market data.The central bank's latest projections suggest inflation will remain above 3% until late 2027, but restrictive monetary policy is also expected to weigh on economic activity. Traders expect that the cumulative impact of previous tightening will eventually weaken growth enough to allow rate cuts. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.