XAUUSD: Watching the 4049–4051 Retest for Bullish ContinuationGoldOANDA:XAUUSDintraday_stormGold is showing a short-term bullish recovery after the sharp selloff visible on the chart. My focus is whether the latest breakout area can hold as support and produce another push higher. STRUCTURE AND REASONING Price recovered from the 4,014.943 area and subsequently reclaimed 4,029.461 and 4,040.740. The latest advance broke above the local highs around 4,048.925–4,051.386 and approached the 4,065.456 area before pulling back. This creates a potential resistance-to-support retest. The bullish scenario depends on buyers defending the reclaimed area. This is a local recovery thesis. It does not, by itself, confirm a reversal of the broader trend. AREA OF INTEREST I am watching 4,048.925–4,051.386 for a possible bullish reaction. Confirmation would be a rejection of lower prices followed by a close back above 4,051.386 and a break of the rejection candle’s high. A touch of the zone alone would not confirm the setup. REFERENCE TRADE PLAN • Direction: Conditional long • Reference entry: 4,051.386 • Stop-loss: 4,047.398 • First upside checkpoint: 4,065.456 • Extended target: 4,091.311 From the reference entry, the stop distance is approximately $3.99 per ounce. The first checkpoint offers approximately 3.53R, while the extended target offers approximately 10.01R, before spread, fees and slippage. These ratios apply to the reference entry only. An entry after confirmation may be higher and would require recalculating the reward-to-risk ratio. UPSIDE CONDITIONS The first test is whether price can revisit and break 4,065.456. Sustained trading above that level would support keeping 4,091.311 in view as an extended objective. The extended target is a projection, not an assured destination. INVALIDATION AND ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO The reference trade is invalidated at 4,047.398. I would not widen the stop to keep the position open. If the retest fails, 4,040.740 becomes the next marked support to monitor, followed by 4,029.461. Losing those levels would further weaken the recovery structure. Failure of the long setup would not automatically be a short-entry signal; a bearish trade would require its own confirmation. EXECUTION If price advances without a qualifying retest, I would let the move go. If confirmation requires an entry that leaves insufficient reward relative to risk, I would skip the trade. This analysis refers to the attached chart snapshot. The levels and setup must still be valid when the idea is published. Educational market analysis, not a guaranteed outcome or personalized investment advice.