Before anyone says so and so is saying this. There are over 30 models to look at and you need to choose the best ones that work with early-season storms. Also we have a lot of AI influence in models now and new models now that have not been tested in early season storms just yet. I have a background in meteorology and engineering so this isn’t just some stupid post about weather. This forecast could easily bust and is not meant to hype the storm. I am pointing out what other media outlets are not telling you. Now let’s get into it. There is a storm coming for the entire region starting tonight. This is an extremely hard storm to forecast for in terms of snow totals because even a 1 degree difference or heavier precipitation can cause more snow totals accumulate. Some reliable models are showing a difference of 1 inch and 18 inches for the same location. This will be heavy wet snow for anywhere that gets it. Anywhere that gets over 6 inches will start to see power outages. 6 inches of snow could be widespread down south or be isolated. Where do I think 6+ inches of snow has a 60%+ chance of happening? The higher elevations of the green mountains especially the spine 1,000+ feet in elevation. The further north you go above Rutland or so the chances of getting 6+ inches drop off since the storm is more of southern storm. 60% chance is not 100%. 60% means that 60 out of 100 times would this come true. We could very easily get less then 6 inches in most locations. Areas that could see 6+ inches of snow below 1,000 feet in elevation would be Bennington, Windham, and Windsor counties in VT. This would be isolated but is still possible. Since we have a lot of people who frequent the upper valley I will add that Sullivan County in NH has a chance of seeing 6+ inches of snow in the higher elevations and even a lower chance in the lower elevation areas. Chance of 6+ inches of snow above 1,000 feet in the counties mentioned above is over 60%+ and the chance of seeing it below 1,000 feet is around 35% but is still notabley higher then what a lot of media outlets are saying. If you live below 1,000 feet in Bennington, Windham, Windsor, and Sullivan County I would be slightly prepared for power outages in case the precipitation ends up being heavier then expected or the temps are a degree or 2 colder then predicted. I wouldn’t expect you to lose power but you never know with theses early season storms. If you live above 1,000 feet in those counties, I would definitely be preparing for power outages since your chances are higher. Less people live at these elevations so it shouldn’t be out for long. Early season storms are notorious for over performing in higher elevations, and dumping wet heavy cement like snow on tree branches that may of been weakened by storms in the summer. Just look at what happened in coos county NH where some places got 7-9 inches of snow overnight randomly. This prediction could be way off as a 1 degree difference will make or break this forecast but I will supply evidence of why I am saying what I am saying. From the National Weather service, weather models, and some local media outlets. If the precipitation comes down harder then expected for a period of time it will cool down the air around it quicker and the ground and allow it to accumulate. The same could be argued the other way and make most places under perform but I would hate to under predict and have this end up being a moderate storm. If you live in a city with lots of paved roads nearby and sidewalks this forecast isn’t for you. If you live in the outskirts of one this forecast is for you. If you live in rural southern VT or a high elevation this forecast is for you. Hopefully this makes sense and remember this is mostly a south of Rutland above 1,000 feet in elevation storm with possible minor-moderate impacts in the lower elevations if the precipitation falls harder and / or the temps are a degree or two colder at your location.   submitted by   /u/MeaningAmbitious8979   to   r/vermont [link]   [comments]