Crude prices recover as shipping attacks complicate Iran peace efforts

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(Oil & Gas 360) – Oil prices rose Wednesday, November 11, recovering from two-month lows as renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program weakened expectations for an imminent diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict.Brent crude futures increased $1.22, or 1.3%, to $92.71 per barrel by approximately 9:12 a.m. Eastern Time, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.09, or 1.3%, to $87.13.The rebound followed a sharp decline Tuesday, when crude initially fell more than $3 per barrel after U.S. officials indicated that additional military strikes against Iran might not be necessary.However, Iranian officials disputed suggestions that negotiations were underway, and Tehran’s senior security leadership rejected the possibility of transferring enriched nuclear material outside the country.Washington has identified nuclear issues as a central requirement for negotiations aimed at ending the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.Continued shipping attacks have added uncertainty to the diplomatic outlook.According to data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 37 commercial vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways during October, the highest monthly total since the conflict began.Additional incidents have been reported in November, including a tanker struck near Oman and reports from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards that two vessels caught fire after encountering naval mines.The incidents underscore the continuing risks facing commercial shipping through one of the world’s most important energy transportation corridors.Even if a diplomatic agreement is reached, analysts caution that restoring normal tanker traffic could require mine clearance, lower insurance premiums and renewed confidence among shipowners.Meanwhile, underlying oil supply conditions have improved.Data from Kpler indicates that Middle Eastern crude oil and condensate production outages have declined to approximately 3.8 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabian and Iraqi output returning to prewar levels.The recovery has contributed to downward pressure on crude prices. Since the beginning of November, Brent has declined approximately 21%, while WTI has fallen roughly 17%, despite Wednesday’s rebound.U.S. inventory data also suggests improving supply availability. Industry figures indicated that domestic crude stockpiles increased approximately 9 million barrels during the week ended November 6, although official government figures had not yet been released.Elsewhere, Ukrainian drone attacks have reportedly reduced Russian oil refining capacity by approximately 30% since late October, introducing additional uncertainty into global refined-product markets.For institutional investors, the competing developments create a complex pricing environment.Improving Middle Eastern production and rising inventories could limit sustained price increases, while shipping disruptions and unresolved diplomatic disagreements continue to support a geopolitical risk premium.Higher transportation and insurance costs may also influence crude price differentials, refinery margins and regional supply economics.The immediate market outlook will depend on diplomatic progress, tanker security and whether recovering production can translate into dependable crude deliveries.Disclaimer This informational, opinion, and insights article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available information and market conditions at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice.