What We Learned At Keeneland November: Eight Key Points

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Keeneland's November Breeding Stock Sale closed with $253.1 million in sales (including post-RNA sales), 25 seven-figure horses and its highest average in at least a decade.The average edged up to $124,947, but the median fell from $60,000 to $50,000 and ring clearance declined from 79.6% to 75.4%. Despite cataloging 324 more horses, Keeneland sold just one additional horse through the ring.1) Weanling Prices Return to Familiar TerritoryThe November weanling median fell from $70,000 to $55,000, while September's yearling median rose from $80,000 to $85,000.Last year, the weanling median reached 87.5% of the September yearling median, the highest proportion in a decade. That figure has now fallen to 64.7%, back within the 52% to 68% range recorded between 2017 and 2024.The wider gap gives pinhookers a more familiar starting point ahead of September 2027.2) Book 1 Accounted for More Than the Sale's Entire IncreaseBook 1 generated $100.3 million (including post-sale), up $24.7 million on 2025. Yet the overall sale grew by just $7.1 million. The remaining eight sessions brought $17.7 million less than last year.Volume drove much of Book 1's growth. The number sold rose from 133 to 166, while the median held steady at $400,000. The average increased 6.3% to $604,331.3) Twenty-Five Million-Dollar Horses Claimed 19% of the GrossTwenty-five horses made $1 million or more, up from 18 last year and the highest number in a decade.Together they generated $48.2 million, or 19% of the sale's gross, compared with 13.6% in 2025.Twenty-three sold in Book 1, headed by Quietside, who brought $5.2 million from Erdenheim Farm Thoroughbreds while in foal to Nyquist.4) Gun Runner Covers Went Seven for SevenAll seven mares offered in foal to Gun Runner sold, generating $12.75 million at a $1.2 million median. They included Ahavah at $4.8 million and Flag Day at $2.9 million.Among first-season covering sires, Sierra Leone led with 19 mares sold for $6.74 million.Mares carrying first-season covers recorded a $62,000 median, compared with $45,000 for those carrying other covers.  5) Al Ruwais Bought the Mares, Other Buyers Took Their FoalsAl Ruwais Stables, which was inactive at the 2025 sale, spent $6.94 million on nine mares across the first three books.Four sold immediately before their own weanlings, with different buyers taking the foals each time.Eve of War, dam of Grade I winner The Puma, made $2.4 million in foal to Sierra Leone. Her Practical Joke colt followed at $900,000 to Wesley Ward.Sweet Kisses brought $975,000 in foal to Into Mischief, while her Into Mischief colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $750,000.6) Book 2 Clearance Falls, Previous Buybacks Bring LessBook 2's ring clearance fell from 76.7% to 67.6%, the lowest of the five books. Buybacks increased from 112 to 153.The experience of last year's buybacks offers a warning.Of 49 mares and fillies bought back in 2025 and re-offered this year, 35 sold. The 18 offered in foal both years brought $1.15 million, compared with $1.79 million bid in 2025. Only three exceeded their previous bids.Another 12 returned from racing or broodmare prospect status, 11 now in foal. They brought $1.21 million, roughly matching last year's bids, with seven exceeding those offers.7) Buying Open Mares and Reselling in Foal Paid OffThirty horses purchased last November as racing or broodmare prospects returned this year. Sixteen sold in foal, and every one exceeded her original purchase price.Their combined purchase price was $1.74 million. They resold for $4.43 million.Lady de Berry climbed from $285,000 to $950,000 in foal to Gun Runner. Runrate and Calmate, bought for $200,000 and $190,000, respectively, each made $650,000 in foal to Nyquist.By contrast, mares purchased in foal last year and resold in foal returned just 78 cents on the dollar.8) Arabian Knight Led Freshman Gross, Muth Led MedianFirst-crop sires represented 36.5% of the weanling catalog, with 585 foals by 24 stallions.Arabian Knight led by gross, with 35 sold for $5.05 million and a $120,000 median.Muth topped the median rankings among sires with at least 10 sold at $180,000. His highest-priced filly made $525,000. Her dam had sold for $450,000 carrying her last November.Domestic Product also impressed, selling 30 of 36 offered for an 83.3% clearance rate.Click here for additional data.Henry Nothhaft, Jr. is the founder of Thoroughbred Intelligence, a decision intelligence firm serving the Thoroughbred industry and publishes its research at tbintel.com. He has built AI companies since 2009, including Trapit, a DARPA-funded spinout of SRI International. He is based in Versailles, KY. The post What We Learned At Keeneland November: Eight Key Points appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.