BTC Weekend Flush: It Stops When Longs Give UpBTCUSDTPERP PERPETUAL MIX CONTRACTBITGET:BTCUSDT.PArnoruBTC Market Analysis | 2026.11.14 20:00 EST Market bias: Downtrend continues. I see a short-term bottom around 60K, but I can’t say yet how far this goes Key liquidation zones: Upside 66.0K / 67.6K / 74.0K; downside 62.2K (August lows) / 60.0K / 57.8K (July low) Positioning: Stay on the sidelines. Rather than chasing shorts, watch for signs of longs giving up Expected path: A test of the 62.2K and 60.0K areas. On a bounce, the nearby short cluster at 65.4K–67.6K is resistance Liquidation map long/short ratio: 66.2% / 33.8% (All Leverage, full price range), down from 69.1% OI: ~209.3K BTC (+0.9% from 207.5K). It did not shrink despite a 7% drop Funding rate: 0.0020% (down from 0.0080%, still positive) CVD: Spot: Aggregate plunged to −1.1B. Coinbase at −1.07B, and Binance spot also saw heavy selling Futures: Net selling of about −8,000 BTC; cumulative at a new low of −11.54B. The strongest 4 hours ranked in the bottom 2% of the past two weeks Fear & Greed Index: 13 (Extreme Fear), down sharply from 28 two days ago Key indicators to watch: Whether the long share falls, whether OI shrinks, funding turning negative, Coinbase spot CVD Reassessment trigger: OI shrinking together with a falling long share, and spot turning to buying Review of the previous expected path Expected (11/13 19:10 EST): Further downside more likely, but ranging at 67.6K–69.1K over the weekend while OI builds Actual: Price did not park for the weekend. 67.6K broke at 21:25 EST, about two hours after the post. Then 66.0K broke at 09:25 EST on 11/14, 65.0K at 11:45 EST, and 64.0K at 16:15 EST, with a low of 63.27K (−7.4%) at 17:10 EST. That is the lowest level since August 17. What I got right: The directional call that longs had not given up and further downside was more likely What I got wrong: The weekend range. In thin weekend liquidity, the decline actually sped up. Lesson: Funding rising while price fell, with longs holding on, was itself a warning sign. As long as long fuel remains, I shouldn’t assume a resting phase. My take on the current situation Price did not park for the weekend. It made a big move in the downside direction I expected. I see a short-term bottom around 60K. Price spent a month building a base in the 62K range before the August rally, and below that, lows formed at 57.8K–61K in June and July. Honestly, though, I don’t know yet how far this goes. There are still a lot of longs. Even after a drop of more than 7%, open interest hasn’t shrunk and funding is still positive. New longs keep filling the spots of those that were liquidated. Meanwhile, high-leverage shorts are making big profits, like Michael Burry in The Big Short. I expect this decline to stop only when longs give up. One thing has changed. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 13, into Extreme Fear. Fear in sentiment has arrived; what hasn’t arrived yet is the capitulation of leveraged longs. So more than price, I’ll watch whether shrinking OI, a falling long share, and negative funding show up together. Until those signals appear, I won’t call a bottom, and I won’t chase shorts from here either. For personal record and sharing only. This is not investment advice. Feedback and corrections are always welcome. Feel free to reach out! This is all fiction. Everything is a coincidence.