H1 Demand Reclaim Toward ResistanceGoldOANDA:XAUUSDMason_DrakeXAUUSD is trading around 4,147 after recovering from the lower H1 support structure. Price remains inside the broader ascending channel, but buyers still need to reclaim the 4,152–4,164 Major Demand Zone before the recovery can gain stronger momentum. The macro backdrop remains mixed for gold. On Monday, spot gold held around $4,140 as fading expectations for an immediate Fed hike were offset by a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields. Markets were pricing roughly a 22% probability of an October Fed hike, but still around 84% for December. Reuters Treasury yields remain the main headwind. The U.S. 10-year yield climbed to around 5.31%, while the dollar strengthened as global bond markets remained under pressure. Reuters At the same time, September U.S. services activity cooled slightly, with the ISM Services PMI falling to 54.9, but the prices-paid index surged to 74.0, its highest since July 2022. That combination keeps inflation risk alive even as growth momentum softens. Reuters Technical View The H1 chart shows a sharp rejection from the 4,215–4,225 Supply Zone, followed by a deep correction into the lower channel structure. Price has since stabilized above the 4,123–4,133 support area, where the lower trend structure and recent liquidity base converge. The first bullish confirmation level is the 4,152–4,164 Major Demand Zone. Price currently trades just below it, so acceptance back above this area would be important. If buyers reclaim Major Demand, the next objective becomes the 4,180–4,188 Resistance Zone. Above that, the larger upside target remains 4,215–4,225, where the prior supply and upper channel structure align. The bullish scenario remains conditional because H1 is still recovering from a strong bearish displacement. Key Zones Current Price: 4,146.940 Buy Priority / Lower Support: 4,123–4,133 Major Demand / First Reclaim: 4,152–4,164 Resistance Zone: 4,180–4,188 Supply Zone: 4,215–4,225 Structural Support: 4,110.917 Trading Plan Buy Priority: 4,123–4,133 Condition: wait for a liquidity sweep followed by bullish rejection, higher-low formation, reclaim or bullish MSS/CHoCH confirmation. TP1: 4,152–4,164 TP2: 4,180–4,188 TP3: 4,215–4,225 Invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance below 4,110. Buy/Sell View The preferred approach is not to chase price around 4,147. A controlled pullback into 4,123–4,133 would provide a cleaner location to evaluate buyer strength. If buyers defend this lower support and reclaim 4,152–4,164, the short-term recovery structure improves significantly. The more important test will then be 4,180–4,188, where sellers may attempt to regain control. Important Note The Fed backdrop remains two-sided. Near-term hike expectations have fallen sharply, which helps gold, but elevated yields, a stronger dollar and rising services-sector input prices continue to limit the upside. Reuters Oil has eased toward $100.28 Brent as stronger Middle East exports and a G7 emergency reserve release reduced immediate supply concerns, although Gulf tensions remain unresolved. Reuters The September FOMC minutes due Wednesday may become the next major catalyst for rate expectations and gold volatility. Reuters Final View Gold is attempting to rebuild an H1 recovery from the lower channel structure. The main scenario is a pullback into 4,123–4,133 followed by bullish confirmation, targeting 4,152–4,164 first and then 4,180–4,188. A successful break above resistance could reopen the larger path toward 4,215–4,225 Supply. Can buyers defend lower support and reclaim the H1 demand structure?