How to know when Bitcoin turns Bullish or Bearish. Very SimpleBitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDOrriginal It Really is. The Chart above is a MONTH timeframe and the attached chars will be WEEKLY In these charts, I use 2 Simple Moving Averages ( SMA ). 9 SMA orange 14 SMA Smoothing Green And the Siganls they Give are simply these :- CAUTION when 9 is lost on a Month / Weekly chart MAJOR Caution if the 14 is also lost and BEAR confirmed when Lost on a Month chart, Bull confirmed when 14 regained on Month Chart. I am not often one to go lower than a 4 hour chart unless searching for a Good entry / Exit point. I Spend most my time on Daily Weekly and Month. The Lower the Timeframe, the more chance of Noise leading to Misjuhgement. When trying to Judge If a Bear or Bull has truly begun however a Daily can also just produce Noise, with bouncy candles.. A Weekly Chart shows a True Signal first, Lets Look at what happened in the 2021 Bull run and Bear on a weekly The Rush to the Firat ATHh in March 2021 was obvious, with PA healthy above Both the 9 and 14 SMA. See how Close to the ATH the Orange 9 SMA was Lost First CAUTION Signal Then we Lost the 14, Potential BEAR Alert... Second CAUTION Signal Bearish Cross over when 9 drops below 14 Third Weeklu chart signal The BEAR Alert needs Confirmation on the Month Chart. On the Month Chart (Main chart above,) PA did not drop fully below the 9 and so a Deeper Bear was never confirmed and so the potential to Scale back in was ALWAYS presant.. For me, I began scaling out after the 9 is Lost on the weekly. I am at the Computer almost every day and so I can react in time. Your choice as to if you should Close positions or not once the Green 14 is lost on a weekly chart. See how we see PA Drop further once 14 Lost Then we waited to regain the 9 SMA. As mentioned above, this was a possible occurance as the monthly 9 SMA was never fully lost. Once this happens, begin Scaling back in Once the 14 is regained, confidence returns. There was one Hicup as we lost the 9 again in late August 2021 and that Proves why scaling in and out is so important. After the November 2021 ATH, repeat the process above. It is as easy as that. The 2023 Low to 2025 ATH was a little more complicated on a Weekly chart as we Ranged for long periods of Time. In those periods, we saw the 9 and 14 close together and so they were lost and regained on a regular basis at times and this is why the MONTH chart is used to confirm or Deny a Bear or Bull. Look at the 2023 to 2025 Run on this month chart ( Main chart ) We see how the 9 was regained in January and the 14 by mid summer From there, PA remained Above the 9 SMA till the Bear began, apart from one Dip in Mid 2024. And now, in 2026, we see how PA regained the 9 in August this year and we are about to test for the 14. If we regain this, the BULL RUN is Serioius So For now, we wait to see if we can take 88950 and hold ABOVE THE 14 MONTH SMA We got above it in one month in 2023 but PA was tired by then and so we ranged while PA recovered We may do the same this time. Time will tell I hope this was useful. P.S. The same process does apply well to the Daily timeframe but is a LOT more bouncy and can lead to false moves. Rememberm SCALE IN SCALE OUT doe slead to safer trading.