Oil remains the swing factor. Higher diesel and gasoline prices from the Middle East conflict feed directly into inflation expectations, and one strategist quoted by Barron's (may be gated) described oil as a wild card for US rates. That means any long-bond rally is hostage to Gulf supply headlines, much as Goldman Sachs suggested in its note. Strong inflows into long-duration funds during a record losing streak show that real money is willing to buy weakness, which could slow the selloff even if it doesn't reverse it. Against that, a Fed on a tightening path, heavy issuance and AI-related corporate borrowing keep upward pressure on yields, so volatility is likely to stay high.- Long Treasuries are having their worst run on record, which is exactly why two of their longest-standing critics have decided it is time to buy.Summary:Two strategists who have avoided major-economy government bonds for years now recommend long-dated US Treasuries, Barron's reportedThe roughly $47 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has fallen for 10 straight days, its longest losing streak, yet has drawn around $5 billion of inflows this yearOne strategist argues the Fed will ultimately cut rates to protect government finances, a view Barron's warns could backfire by undermining central bank independenceThe other says current yields, about 5.3% on the 10-year and about 5.6% on the 30-year, make the bonds worth owningRisks include large deficits, war costs, inflation near 3%, AI-related corporate borrowing and rising fuel pricesTwo strategists who have long steered clear of government bonds are now making the case for long-dated US Treasuries, even as the market for them suffers one of its worst runs on record, Barron's reported.One, a research firm co-founder who has advised against major-economy sovereign debt since 2022, recommended 10- and 30-year Treasuries in a note this week. Another, the founder of a US research house, turned positive on long-duration government debt last week for the first time in six years.Their shift comes amid heavy losses. The roughly $47 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has fallen for 10 straight trading days, its longest losing streak ever. Even so, investors betting on a rebound have poured money in, taking the fund's inflows to around $5 billion for the year after outflows as recently as August.The bullish case runs against market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep raising rates. Consensus sees the fed funds rate, now targeted at 3.75% to 4%, rising to at most 4.75% by the end of 2027. However, the Fed's own projections released last month showed most policymakers expect rates below 4.25% in 2027.The first strategist argues lower rates are coming partly because a widening budget deficit will push the Fed to protect government and banking system solvency. Barron's cautioned that a central bank seen to be easing to fund government borrowing would damage confidence in its independence, likely pushing yields higher rather than lower.The second strategist's argument is simpler: yields are now high enough to make the bonds worth holding. The 10-year yield settled at about 5.3% on Tuesday and the 30-year at about 5.6%.The risks remain substantial. Barron's pointed to swelling federal debt, the cost of war, inflation near 3%, competition from corporate borrowing to fund AI investment and rising fuel prices. For patient investors willing to ride out volatility, however, the publication concluded that long Treasuries now look compelling. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.