The storm's biggest effect may fall on refined products rather than crude. If Gulf Coast refineries shut ahead of landfall, they stop buying crude, which can briefly weigh on US crude prices even as gasoline and diesel tighten. That would widen crack spreads, the margin between crude and the fuels refined from it, at a time when diesel is already at record highs and Western governments are preparing emergency stock releases. Outside the US, the Houthi attacks and Washington's sharper tone on Iran keep a geopolitical premium in Brent that rising Gulf export volumes have so far failed to erode. For now, the balance of risks favours prices holding around $100 rather than falling back, unless the storm weakens or Middle East tensions ease.---Oil is being pulled between returning Middle East barrels and a growing list of threats, and this week a Gulf of Mexico hurricane joined the queue.Summary:Oil prices rose on Wednesday as a storm in the Gulf of Mexico, expected to become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026, threatened US energy facilitiesOffshore areas in the storm's path produce 15% of US crude and 5% of US natural gas, and six refineries could be affectedHouthi attacks on Saudi airports in Jazan and Najran escalated tensions, even as Middle East crude exports roseSaudi East-West Pipeline flows reached close to 6 million bpd, and Vitol said around 12 million bpd of crude has left the region by tanker in the past week to 10 daysUS President Donald Trump said it was unclear who was running Iran, signalling little progress in repairing relationsOil prices rose on Wednesday as a storm bearing down on US oil-producing regions and escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia outweighed signs that Middle East crude supply is recovering. Brent held close to the $100 level it reclaimed this week.US forecasters said the storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico was expected to become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 within two days and would likely hit oil and gas facilities. Offshore areas in its path account for 15% of US crude output and 5% of natural gas production. Six refineries could also be affected. Gulf Coast states hold about half of the country's refining capacity of roughly 18 million barrels per day, which is why the storm matters as much for fuel supply as for crude. One analyst described it as an unwelcome complication for a market already facing plenty of supply problems.The threat from refining outages is especially sensitive now. Diesel prices are at record highs, and the Group of Seven agreed last week to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, with the International Energy Agency due to meet next week to settle the details. Another analyst said attacks and refinery outages were likely to keep refining margins elevated and that, without meaningful de-escalation, crude would stay near $100.On the supply side, flows from the Middle East have been improving. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu was carrying close to 6 million barrels a day, while the head of trading house Vitol said around 12 million bpd of crude and 2 million bpd of refined products had left the region by tanker over the past week to 10 days.Those gains have been offset by renewed violence. Saudi airports were targeted in two attacks on Monday evening as fighting with Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis escalated, with Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces pushing an offensive against the rebels, supported by Saudi airstrikes.Diplomacy offered little relief. Trump said on Tuesday that nobody knew who was running Iran after the eight-month US-Israeli war, prompting Iran's foreign ministry to insist that Washington understood exactly how decisions are made in Tehran.In the US, industry data from the American Petroleum Institute showed crude stocks fell by about 2 million barrels last week, against analysts' expectations of a build. Official figures from the Energy Information Administration are due on Wednesday at 10:30 am ET (14:30 GMT). Traders will also be watching the storm's track and whether Gulf producers begin evacuating offshore platforms. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.