Gold at 4100: Support or Unfinished Business?GoldOANDA:XAUUSDMihai_IacobIn my weekend outlook, I explained why Friday’s NFP reaction reinforced my bearish view on Gold. Yesterday, I identified the 4160–4190 area as the most immediate selling zone. Gold did indeed reverse from Friday’s lows and recover toward 4170— exactly in the middle of that zone. Buyers made several attempts to push through the area but failed to establish themselves above it. Gold then rolled over, returned to the direction of the prevailing trend and, during the Asian session overnight, dropped to a low just above 4100. The bearish scenario continues to unfold, but the market has now reached a technically important area. Why 4100 Matters Looking at the posted chart, we can clearly see that 4100 is not an ordinary intraday support. At the beginning of August, this area formed part of an important confluence resistance zone. Once Gold finally broke above it, the move triggered a powerful bullish expansion of approximately 6,000 pips. This gives 4100 considerable technical relevance. It represents: - The origin of the major August bullish expansion - A former resistance zone that should now act as support - An area where buyers previously demonstrated enough strength to change the market’s pace For this reason, a reaction from 4100 would be entirely normal. However, the importance of a support zone does not guarantee that it will hold. Gold May Have Unfinished Business Below In my opinion, Gold has not returned to 4100 simply to offer buyers another easy entry. The price may have come back because the structure has some unfinished business interupted by August's rally. Yesterday’s Failure Reinforces the Bearish Structure The recovery toward 4170 was important because it tested the resistance band identified in advance. Gold did not simply touch the zone and collapse immediately. Buyers attempted several times to conquer it, but every effort failed. Once the market could no longer advance, sellers regained control and pushed the price back toward 4100. This tells us two things: - The 4160–4190 zone is attracting genuine selling interest. - Buyers remain unable to transform short-term recoveries into sustained bullish moves. The market continues to follow the same bearish sequence: decline, correction into resistance, failure and continuation lower. What Happens if 4100 Breaks? A decisive break below 4100 would be technically significant. It would mean that the market had lost the origin of August’s major bullish expansion and that former resistance had failed to function as support. In that case, the summer lows around 4000 would become exposed. However, a brief spike below 4100 would not be sufficient by itself. Gold frequently sweeps liquidity below important levels before reversing sharply. A genuine bearish confirmation would require: - A decisive move below the zone - Continued selling interest beneath it - Failure to reclaim 4100 quickly - Former support beginning to act as resistance If those conditions appear, a move toward 4000 becomes the logical continuation scenario. What Would Change My Bearish Outlook? The first step for bulls would be to recover above the immediate resistance zone. But another temporary spike above 4160 or even 4200 would not be enough. To change my outlook, Gold must return above 4200 with sustained buying interest. That means more than briefly trading above the level. Buyers must hold it, defend subsequent pullbacks and demonstrate that higher prices can finally be sustained. Until that happens, the broader structure remains bearish. Trading Strategy My strategy remains unchanged: sell rallies. However, Gold is currently trading directly above major support, so chasing short positions near 4100 may offer poor risk-to-reward. A corrective recovery would provide a cleaner opportunity, particularly if the price returns toward broken intraday levels and shows renewed weakness. The main reference points are now clear: - 4100: critical immediate support - 4000: next major downside area if 4100 breaks - 4160–4180: immediate selling zone - Above 4200 with sustained buying: condition that would challenge the bearish outlook Conclusion Gold recovered yesterday exactly into the anticipated selling zone, failed to establish itself above it and resumed the prevailing downtrend. The price has now returned to 4100—the origin of August’s 6,000-pip bullish expansion and one of the most important remaining support zones on the chart. A short-term bounce is possible, but I do not believe Gold has returned here merely to provide another easy buying opportunity. More likely, the market still has unfinished business to the downside. My outlook remains bearish. I will continue selling rallies, with a confirmed break below 4100 exposing the summer lows around 4000. Only sustained buying above 4200 would change that view.