De Haan's analysis reinforces that the order does nothing for diesel supply, so futures and crack spreads should remain driven by Middle East flows, low inventories and emergency stock releases rather than tax policy. Any switch to dyed diesel in the handful of states that allow it could tighten local supplies of off-road fuel during harvest, adding to regional price pressure. A possible deferred tax bill may also discourage uptake among fleets, limiting the demand shift. The analysis keeps attention on Congress, where a full federal diesel tax suspension would have a broader but still modest effect on prices.----Trump has painted the diesel tax break red, but GasBuddy's De Haan says state laws, a possible deferred bill and empty truck-stop tanks mean most drivers won't see the difference.Summary:Trump signed an order allowing red-dyed diesel on public roads without the federal tax of about 24 cents a gallon.GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan says most diesel users are unlikely to see much change at the pump.State laws still ban dyed diesel on roads in most states, and an executive order cannot override them.The federal tax is reportedly deferred rather than eliminated, and many states charge sales tax on dyed diesel.Large fleets are likely to stay out, the order adds no supply, and a full tax suspension would need Congress.President Donald Trump's order allowing red-dyed diesel on public roads without the federal fuel tax sounds like a major break for drivers, but most diesel users are unlikely to see much difference at the pump, according to GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan.De Haan, a widely followed analyst of US fuel prices, laid out the reasons in a thread on X, where he posts as @GasBuddyGuy. If you are on X, he is well worth a follow. If not, here is a summary of his key points.The fuel itself is not the issue. Dyed diesel is essentially the same product as standard on-road diesel, with the dye serving only to flag that the federal tax of about 24 cents a gallon has not been paid. Farmers already buy it tax-free for off-road equipment, so they gain little. De Haan said the change is aimed mainly at truck operators, local haulers and owners of diesel pickups.The biggest obstacle is state law. An executive order cannot override state rules on dyed diesel, and in most states running it on public roads remains illegal. De Haan noted that Alabama, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Texas have relaxed their rules, though Louisiana's easing applies only to farm and timber use.The fuel may also not be as tax-free as it appears. Many states levy sales tax on dyed diesel in place of their fuel tax, and the White House fact sheet reportedly describes the federal tax as deferred rather than scrapped. If the tax eventually falls due, those who switched could face a bill.De Haan expects large trucking fleets to stay on the sidelines. Interstate operators would have to navigate a patchwork of state rules and tax complications, and most major truck stops do not stock dyed diesel. The order adds no new fuel supply, and in some areas it could tighten availability for farmers in the middle of harvest.His conclusion is that the change is significant on paper but likely to deliver limited and uneven relief in practice. A broad suspension of the federal diesel tax would require Congress, but would apply to every gallon in every state. He advised drivers to check their state's rules before filling up with dyed diesel. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.