H1 Pullback Into Support Before RecoveryGoldOANDA:XAUUSDMason_DrakeXAUUSD is trading around 4,160 after recovering from the lower boundary of the current H1 structure. Price has returned to the 4,150–4,164 Major Demand Zone, but the chart still suggests that a deeper liquidity pullback toward the lower support area may occur before a cleaner recovery develops. The macro backdrop has turned more supportive for gold after the latest U.S. labor report. September nonfarm payrolls increased only 29K versus 90K expected, unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and annual wage growth eased to 3.0%. Markets subsequently cut the implied probability of an October Fed hike to roughly 23%, sharply lower than around 70% earlier in the week. Reuters However, the upside remains constrained by elevated Treasury yields. Gold finished Friday near $4,140, down about 3.4% for the week, as longer-term U.S. yields remained near multi-decade highs despite weaker employment data. Reuters A fresh geopolitical risk has also emerged. Oil moved higher Monday after Houthi forces said they attacked Saudi Aramco facilities, pushing Brent toward $103.06. This can support safe-haven demand for gold, but higher energy prices can also revive inflation concerns and keep bond yields elevated. Reuters Technical View The H1 chart remains inside a broader rising structure from the 4,110 structural low, but recent price action is still corrective after the rejection from the upper supply area. Gold is currently trading inside the 4,150–4,164 Major Demand Zone. This area can produce an initial reaction, but the cleaner liquidity location sits lower around 4,125–4,135, where the marked Target Zone and rising lower trendline converge. A sweep into that lower area followed by bullish rejection, reclaim or higher-low formation would provide stronger confirmation that sellers are losing momentum. If buyers regain control, the first recovery objective is a reclaim of 4,150–4,164. Above that, 4,188–4,198 is the main H1 Resistance Zone. A stronger continuation could eventually retest the 4,215–4,225 Supply Zone, where the previous bearish Order Block and upper trend structure align. Key Zones Current Price: 4,160.300 Major Demand: 4,150–4,164 Buy Priority / Target Zone: 4,125–4,135 Structural Support: 4,110.736 Resistance Zone: 4,188–4,198 Supply Zone: 4,215–4,225 Trading Plan Buy Priority: 4,125–4,135 Condition: wait for a liquidity sweep followed by bullish rejection, reclaim, higher-low formation or bullish MSS/CHoCH confirmation. TP1: 4,150–4,164 TP2: 4,188–4,198 TP3: 4,215–4,225 Invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance below 4,110. Buy/Sell View The preferred approach is not to chase the current rebound around 4,160. Price is already sitting inside Major Demand, but a deeper pullback toward 4,125–4,135 would provide a cleaner location to evaluate buyer strength. If that lower support holds and H1 confirms bullish structure, the recovery path toward 4,188–4,198 becomes more attractive. Important Note Weak payroll growth has significantly reduced expectations for an immediate Fed hike, which supports gold from the rate-expectation side. However, elevated Treasury yields and renewed oil-driven inflation risk remain important counterweights. Reuters This creates a two-sided environment where liquidity sweeps around support may be sharper than usual. Final View Gold is attempting to stabilize inside H1 Major Demand, but the cleaner recovery scenario sits slightly lower. The main setup is a pullback into 4,125–4,135 followed by confirmed bullish reaction, targeting 4,150–4,164 first, then 4,188–4,198. If buyers eventually clear resistance, the larger recovery objective becomes 4,215–4,225. Can buyers defend the lower H1 support and rebuild the recovery toward resistance?