TLDR:Bitcoin starts near $85,000 as bond yields, Fed minutes and ISM data shape this week’s crypto outlook.September payrolls rose 29,000 versus 90,000 expected, while unemployment increased to 4.2% overall.The 10-year Treasury yield recently hit 5.34%, its highest level in roughly 24 years, pressuring risk assets.A $39B 10-year Treasury reopening and Fed minutes make Wednesday the week’s key bond-market test for crypto.Cryptocurrency markets enter a macro-heavy week with Treasury yields again shaping the outlook for Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets. The schedule includes services data, a major Treasury auction, Federal Reserve minutes, and consumer inflation expectations.The Kobeissi Letter highlighted six events across Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, placing the bond market at the center of this week’s trading focus. Basically, higher Treasury yields raise returns on lower-risk assets and can tighten financial conditions, limiting demand for speculative assets.Key Events This Week:1. September ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data – Monday2. September ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices data – Monday3. US 10Y Note Auction – Wednesday4. Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday5. October MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday6. October MI Inflation…— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 4, 2026Bitcoin began the week near $85,000 after reaching about $87,000 following Friday’s weaker employment report. September payrolls rose by 29,000, below the 90,000 expected, while unemployment increased to 4.2%. The weaker labor figures shifted attention toward whether incoming inflation and activity data support another Fed increase. That makes this week’s bond moves especially important for crypto pricing.Bond-Heavy Week Puts Bitcoin in Focus Before ISM and Fed MinutesMonday’s first major catalyst arrives at 10:00 a.m. ET with the September ISM Services PMI. The August index stood at 55.4, while the Prices Index reached 72.6. As a result, economists expect the September headline reading near 55.Attention will also center on prices after September manufacturing prices jumped to 77.9 from 71.1. A strong services reading alongside elevated prices would keep inflation pressures in focus. That combination could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, adding pressure across the crypto market.Softer activity and weaker price pressures would instead reinforce expectations that the Fed can pause after September’s increase. The employment report already reduced expectations for another immediate rate rise.$39B Treasury Auction and 5.34% Yield Raise Wednesday StakesWednesday concentrates the week’s largest bond-related events, starting with Treasury’s scheduled 10-year note reopening. Officials had previously outlined a $39 billion October auction size, keeping demand for government debt firmly in focus. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield recently reached 5.34%, its highest level in about 24 years.That rise in yields has already affected Bitcoin’s short-term performance. Earlier last week, Bitcoin moved above $85,500 before giving back gains as the 10-year yield remained near 5.3%. Later Wednesday, Fed minutes will offer more detail on how officials viewed the September policy decision. Policymakers unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%.Attention will then shift to Friday, when preliminary October University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations are released. September sentiment fell to 48.1, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%. At the same time, five-year expectations increased to 3.4%. Together, those figures will provide another measure of whether inflation pressures remain embedded as markets assess the Fed’s next move.Friday’s readings will therefore close a week dominated by interest rates and Treasury yields. For the crypto market, the key issue remains whether bond yields retreat from recent highs or stay elevated. As a result, macroeconomic data and rate expectations are likely to remain more influential than crypto-specific catalysts during the week.The post Crypto Markets Brace for Bond-Heavy Week as Fed Minutes and ISM Loom appeared first on Blockonomi.