SPY Framework: October 5th

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SPY Framework: October 5thState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETFBATS:SPYAspenTradingWhere we are. SPY remains range bound, and has been for close to two months. The mid September break took price through the lower end of that range at roughly 757 and down to 748.12, and price has since worked all the way back to the upper end. Today's action was impressive on both technical and price action terms. It also did not finish the job. We made a new high within the August to present swing, but we did not close above the September 22nd, September 3rd, or August 28th highs. That keeps us inside the range. What is constructive is the sequence off the September low: higher lows and higher highs. Nothing in that argues for a different read than the one we have been carrying. Note also that the levels have moved since the last issue. Two more weeks of structure rebuilds them, and the band that mattered at the end of September is not the level that matters now. Above: 776.84. This is the level that matters, and we closed at 775.01, just beneath it. Price needs to accept above 776.84, not simply touch it, and acceptance is what sets up a rally rather than another rejection. Watch whether a push through holds on a retest. 774.00 sits just below as the first thing to lose if this stalls. Below: 769.69, then 758.31 and maybe 748.12? 769.69 is the nearest level underneath. The 769.69 to 758.31 pocket is where the market spent real time through September and is the more meaningful test. Below that, 758.31 and 748.12 are what would have to come back into play before anything bearish is on the table.