Trading Plan and Analysis - #XAUUSD 06/10/2026Gold vs US Dollar, Spot CFDOANDA:XAUUSDfntradinglabM30 Timeframe Gold continues to drift lower, extending what has now become a fairly drawn-out bearish trend since the early September highs above 4,450. Price is currently sitting around 4,129, having broken below the key 4,110 - 4,125 zone highlighted in the previous update, and is now trading into fresh multi-week lows. The broader structure remains clearly bearish — lower highs, lower lows, and every meaningful bounce getting sold before price can reclaim any significant level. The combination of elevated Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and renewed Fed rate-hike expectations has overwhelmed safe-haven demand for gold, and even Friday's weak payrolls report couldn't deliver a sustainable boost. The 10-year Treasury yield hitting a 24-year peak above 5.34% continues to anchor gold's ceiling — at that level, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset is as high as it has been in a generation, and a durable recovery requires either a sustained softening of inflation, a clear Fed pivot signal, or a meaningful compression of the geopolitical risk premium. On the chart, price spent several sessions trying to hold a sideways range between roughly 4,130 - 4,170 after the initial breakdown, with repeated CHOCH signals on M30 that never developed into sustained recoveries. The current move is pressing the lower boundary of that range, with the OB H1 sitting far above at 4,200 - 4,228 — a distant target that would require a significant catalyst to reach. The "sideway" label currently shown on the chart is accurate: price is not breaking down violently at this moment, but it's also unable to build any meaningful bullish momentum. My view stays bearish. After several weeks of sustained selling, the market is approaching the 4,100 psychological level, which will attract attention. However, there is no confirmed reversal signal on the chart, and the macro drivers — high yields and a firm dollar — remain in place. Bounces are corrective until proven otherwise. 🔴 SELL SCENARIO (primary) Zone to watch: 4,145 - 4,160 (upper end of the recent range / broken CHOCH) Confirms if: a bounce into this zone is rejected with a bearish CHOCH on M15/M30 Invalidates if: M30 close above 4,175 🟢 BUY SCENARIO (counter-trend) Zone to watch: 4,110 - 4,120 (approaching low) Confirms if: a sweep of this zone followed by a sharp reclaim and a bullish M15 CHOCH Invalidates if: clean close below 4,100 🟢 BUY SCENARIO (structural reversal, higher conviction) Zone to watch: 4,180 - 4,200 (H1 OB, currently shown on chart) Confirms if: price reclaims this zone with a strong H1 BOS and holds above 4,184 Invalidates if: a failed retest prints a lower high below 4,180 On key levels, near resistance sits at 4,145 - 4,160, with the further resistance at the large H1 OB at 4,200 - 4,228. Near support sits at 4,110 - 4,120, and below that the 4,100 round number, then the 4,050 area. A close below 4,100 would be the first time gold has traded there since mid-July and would likely accelerate selling. Today's suggested play: the week is opening with price in a range. Favor sells on bounces into 4,145 - 4,160 with tight risk above 4,175. Avoid selling the low without a confirmed sweep-and-fail setup at 4,110 - 4,120. Watch for any Fed commentary this week, particularly around the October meeting expectations, as that is the single biggest swing factor for yields and the dollar at this stage. This reflects a personal view and technical read from FN Trading Lab based on current market structure, not financial advice or a specific buy/sell recommendation. Please watch price reaction at the levels mentioned and make your own decisions in line with your own strategy.