Energy Market Assessment: Economic growth, where we are and where we head continues to be clear

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(Oil & Gas 360)  (By Mike Smolinski) – Economic Growth, Where We Are And Where We Head Continues To Be Clear.  So Is A Much-Needed Oil & Natural Gas Supply Investing Boom.  Today’s Jobs Report headline, that only 29,000 jobs were added in September is a good reason to be bearish.  This morning’s Employment Situation Summary said, “Both nonfarm payroll employment (+29,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in September.” The Survey of Establishments reporting 159.044 million in September (Figure 1, red line) is only 29,000 more than 159.015 in August.  Also, July was revised down 31,000 and August down 29,000.  Counting the downward revisions, the report is a net -31,000 as some have noted. Rather than the 84,000 increase the consensus expected.However, the other Survey, The Population Survey, shows 406,000 jobs added in September.  163.152 million is the number employed in September (Figure 2, red line) according to the Current Population Survey of Employment.  That is 406,000 more than 162.746 million in August.  While 162.746 million is 504,000 less than 163.656 million in September of last year, we credit that to employment in the country becoming more efficient.  Federal Government employment in September is 2.682 million, 232,000 fewer than 2.914 million in September last year.Employers recognizing much needing to be done and working hard at it is evident in weekly unemployment insurance claims down extra low.  197,000 is yesterday morning’s report of initial unemployment claims filed last week (Figure 3, bold line).  It is a strong indication of economic growth happening.  200,000 is the average for the four weeks of September 2026.  That favorably compares to 234,000 for 2025, 225,000 for 2024 and 217,000 for 2023.Much needing to be done, being done is also evident in value increasing; stock prices growing higher.  The S&P 500 began this year around 6,800 (Figure 4, bold line).  7,798.99 the closing high August 13 and it above 7,700 today highlights up the direction we head.  We credit the nation’s culture emphasizing Freedom to Do/Be/Have for the accomplishments that have it above 7,700 now, from 1,400 when the 20th century began.A Drilling Boom needed is evident in the price of WTI crude oil above $80 per barrel.  The closing futures contract price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was less than $60 per barrel when year 2021 began (Figure 5).  Supply throttled when Russia invaded Ukraine tugged it above $120.  A return to policies encouraging producing more had it back below $60 when this year began.  Then the effort to finally end the decades-long war by those ruling Iran, throttling supply again jumped above $110.  News of a new effort by the G-7 economies, to supply more oil from Strategic Reserves, deflated it below $90 today.By oilandgas360.com contributor Michael Smolinksi with Energy DirectionsThe views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Oil & Gas 360. Please consult with a professional before making any decisions based on the information provided here. The information presented in this article is not intended as financial advice. Contact Energy Directions for the full report. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.