RUNEUSDT H2: Recovery potential from lowsTHORChain / USDTMEXC:RUNEUSDTTerminator_Crypto_Analyst🎯 TP1: $0.417500 (+0.77%) │ TP2: $0.420700 (+1.54%) 🛑 SL: $0.408482 (-1.40%) │ R/R: 1 : 1.1 ⚠️ SL is placed beyond the nearest candle tails to reduce the risk of accidental triggering. FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND RUNE is trading without its own catalysts, following the general crypto market. US inflation data for July, released on 12.08.2026, showed a 0.2% monthly increase in core CPI compared to the previous 0%, which did not trigger a sharp reaction. PPI data released on 13.08.2026 also did not exert pressure. Altcoins remain in limbo awaiting momentum from BTC/ETH, while the fear and greed index is neutral. TECHNICAL PICTURE The price of $0.414300 is testing the lower boundary of the range ($0.411900–$0.458000), staying below the EMA 20 ($0.42) and EMA 50 ($0.43). ADX 22.8 indicates a moderate trend with sellers' dominance, but proximity to the local low creates potential for a rebound. VWAP ($0.42) and zero MACD values confirm sideways movement. PROBABILITY MODEL Sideways movement remains the primary scenario with a 45% probability, but current levels increase the chance of a short-term recovery (24% vs. 31% bearish reversal). ATR 0.003346 suggests average volatility near the key support zone. DIRECTION 🟢 BUY. Testing the lower boundary of the range with neutral MACD creates conditions for a counter-trend move. ✂️ Заголовок (42): RUNEUSDT H2: Recovery potential from lows