JP225 4H: Bullish Structure Intact, Waiting for Deeper PullbackJapan 225 IndexPURPLETRADING:JP225LIVERMORE333JP225 4H Weekend Analysis 1. Current Status: Bullish Structure Confirmed, Temporary Pause On August 12, price clearly broke above the key resistance at 67,566.36. A golden cross of the daily EMA20/50 has also been confirmed, solidifying a bullish bias in both trend and structure. Recently, price tested 69,605.54 and is showing signs of lower highs. The 69,360–69,605 zone is currently acting as temporary resistance. The EMA200 (red) is around 66,250 and remains ready to act as potential support. 2. Strategy & Action: Short-term Pullback Short → Long on Confirmation The primary bias remains long. However, after the BOS, the market appears overheated and is likely to cool off through a pullback. I am currently building short positions on the rebound. Key reasons for expecting a deeper pullback: The S&P 500 has surged approximately 5% over the past three weeks and is trading near all-time highs. VIX is sitting near its lowest levels of the year, increasing the chance of a volatility expansion. Given the elevated short-term correlation, a pullback in US equities is likely to drag JP225 lower as well. The highest probability scenario currently is a deeper pullback toward the 66,250 area. Profit targets (in order): 67,566.36 (role reversal from previous resistance) EMA50 (green) EMA200 (red, around 66,250) I plan to take partial profits at the first target and reduce risk. Once a clear rebound is confirmed (e.g., strong 4H bullish candle + MA reclaim), I will sequentially switch to long positions in line with the higher-timeframe trend. Invalidation: A decisive close above 69,605.54 on the 4H would invalidate the short setup. 3. Conclusion: 66,250 Remains the Key Watershed As long as the EMA200 (around 66,250) is not clearly broken, the bullish structure remains intact. A decisive break below it would increase the probability of a trend/structure shift to the downside. Short-term, I will use the heaviness around 69,300+ to take profits on shorts. The main opportunity remains a long entry after a pullback into the 66,250–67,500 zone. The plan is simple: wait for the adjustment, then ride the higher-timeframe trend with favorable risk-reward. I will monitor US equities closely from Monday and adjust the expected depth of the pullback accordingly. #JP225 #Nikkei225