EUR/USD Keeps Testing Resistance, but the Rate Gap Is FinallyEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDEvelyn_ReedEUR/USD is back at the same 1.157–1.158 area that has rejected several previous attempts higher. The chart looks repetitive, but the macro backdrop is not. The ECB kept rates unchanged in July at 2.25%, yet euro-area inflation rose to 2.9% and economists increasingly expect one final rate increase in September. By contrast, weaker U.S. labour data, softer inflation and an unexpected 0.6% drop in July retail sales have reduced expectations for another near-term Fed hike. That means the interest-rate differential is beginning to move in a less dollar-friendly direction. The overlooked detail is that EUR/USD has not yet translated that macro improvement into a clean breakout. What the chart shows The four-hour structure continues to produce higher lows beneath the same resistance zone. That is constructive, but compression alone is not confirmation. The rising support line remains intact, while buyers are again testing the 1.157–1.1585 supply area. A sustained move above it would matter because this would be the first time price has combined technical acceptance with a more supportive relative-rate backdrop. Primary interpretation The constructive view remains credible while EUR/USD holds above the rising support line. It gains weight if price establishes four-hour acceptance above 1.1585 rather than producing another brief spike and rejection. Alternative interpretation The alternative is another failed breakout. That scenario becomes more credible if price rejects the upper zone and then loses the rising support structure. In that case, the pair could remain trapped inside the broader range despite the improving euro-rate story. What would change the current view The bullish interpretation weakens below the ascending structure. The cautious view weakens after sustained acceptance above 1.1585. What comes next The next key catalyst is the September policy path. Markets are increasingly expecting another ECB hike, while the Fed case has weakened after softer U.S. data. EUR/USD has tested the ceiling before, but this time the policy backdrop is less hostile to the euro.