US 10Y Yield #1: Four Markets Since the August 2021 Yield LowUnited States 10 Year Government Bonds YieldTVC:US10YKazimKarabacakThe chart I put the US 10 year Treasury yield on the same chart with the dollar index, gold, the S&P 500 and bitcoin. I set the chart to percent, starting from the August 2021 low in the US 10 year Treasury yield, so every market is rebased to that same date and every line shows how far each market has come from it. The channel On the US 10 year Treasury yield I fitted a regression channel from the October 2023 high, and the number on the chart is Pearson's R, 0.13. That number is low and the channel is close to flat, so over these last three years the US 10 year Treasury yield has gone sideways at a high level rather than trended, and now sits near the channel upper band. The four markets Gold was around 1,800 in August 2021 and is around 4,400 today. The S&P 500 was around 4,400 in August 2021 and is around 7,800 today. Bitcoin was around 40,000 in August 2021 and is around 63,000 today. The dollar index was around 92 in August 2021 and is around 100 today, and the dollar index is the line that moved least on this chart. What the chart shows The usual reading is that a high US 10 year Treasury yield holds risk assets back, because money earns more sitting in Treasuries. The US 10 year Treasury yield has stayed high since the October 2023 high, and over that same stretch gold and the S&P 500 both went to new highs. The dollar index barely moved over those years, so a falling dollar index does not explain the rise in gold and the S&P 500 either. What I watch What I watch are both bands of the channel. The US 10 year Treasury yield now sits near the channel upper band, and the US 10 year Treasury yield has kept the shape of this channel since the October 2023 high, so what I watch is not a single day at a band but whether the US 10 year Treasury yield settles outside the channel. If the US 10 year Treasury yield settles outside either band, what I would look at then is whether the four markets keep moving the way this chart shows.