Fundamental Market Analysis for August 14, 2026 USDJPYUS Dollar/Japanese YenSAXO:USDJPYFresh-Forexcast2004The yen has returned to the spotlight after USDJPY moved back toward the 159.4 area. Markets now put the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September at around 76%, significantly higher than at the end of July. The yen is also receiving support from the risk of renewed official action, as Japanese authorities remain prepared to respond to excessive currency weakness following the recent coordinated intervention. Pressure from the dollar side has increased following softer US inflation data. Producer prices did not rise in July, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to around 35%. This weakens support for USDJPY from US interest rate expectations and makes the dollar’s previous advantage less sustainable, particularly as markets anticipate further tightening by the Bank of Japan. The main risk to a decline in the pair comes from today’s US retail sales data and the possibility of market disappointment if the Bank of Japan fails to confirm a faster pace of rate increases. For the current session, however, the combination of weaker US dollar momentum, a high probability of a September Bank of Japan move, and the authorities’ sensitivity to yen weakness outweighs these risks. The base-case scenario therefore allows for a decline in USDJPY. Trading idea: SELL 159.350, SL 159.750, TP 158.450