EUR/USD Has Potential to Rise, Continuing the Main TrendEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDNouzTraderEUR/USD attracted some follow-through buying interest during Friday's Asian trading session, building on a modest recovery from the psychological 1.1500 floor (a more than one-week low). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Transatlantic Monetary Divergence: Cooling US Inflation vs. ECB September Rate Hike Bets (+25 bps) Monetary policy dynamics between Washington and Frankfurt are providing support for the Euro: - Cooling US Inflation (PPI 0.0% & CPI 3.4%): Thursday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed a flat 0.0% month-on-month reading (missing the +0.2% estimate), complementing the earlier release of cooling CPI data. This combination gives the Federal Reserve (Fed) room to hold benchmark interest rates steady at its September meeting, keeping the US Dollar Index (DXY) below its two-week peak. - ECB Rate Hike Outlook (+25 bps): On the Euro side, markets are increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement one final 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike at its September meeting. This is driven by Eurozone inflation remaining stubbornly above the 2% target, providing a yield differential boost for the Euro. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ 4-Hour (H4) Chart Technical Analysis Technically, on the 4-hour (H4) chart, EUR/USD is moving sideways (range-bound) within a two-week consolidation corridor: - Two-Week Range-Bound Pattern: EUR/USD is trapped between 1.1500 and the 1.1620 ceiling. In the absence of a valid breakout, daily movements remain compressed. - 1.1500 Resilience: Buyers successfully defending the psychological 1.1500 base keeps the short-term recovery structure intact. However, a clean break below 1.1500 would invalidate the rebound scenario and pave the way for a decline toward the next macro level at 1.1450.