EUR/USD: Breakout Retest Comes Into Focus

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EUR/USD: Breakout Retest Comes Into FocusEuro vs. US DollarFX:EURUSDStructure_ViewEUR/USD has finally broken through the 1.1590–1.1610 resistance zone that had capped several previous upside attempts. The breakout was decisive. Price accelerated quickly above 1.1600 and reached the 1.1670 area, confirming that buyers were able to absorb the remaining supply. Now the more interesting part begins. Rather than chasing the vertical move higher, I’m watching for a possible retest of the former resistance zone. If 1.1590–1.1610 holds as new support, the breakout would gain much stronger technical confirmation. The fundamental catalyst behind the move was also significant. The U.S. dollar fell sharply after the Treasury announced plans to double buybacks of longer-dated government bonds, which pushed long-term Treasury yields lower and improved liquidity conditions. EUR/USD climbed to around 1.1664 as the dollar index dropped to its lowest level since May. At the same time, the Fed’s July meeting minutes showed a more complicated picture. Several officials supported higher rates if inflation remains persistent, even though the Committee kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The euro also has its own support. A Reuters poll shows most economists expect the ECB to deliver another 25-basis-point hike in September as euro-area inflation remains above target. That leaves the technical structure bullish, but vulnerable to a normal reset after such a fast move. Bullish Scenario A controlled pullback into 1.1590–1.1610, followed by a clear bullish reaction, would confirm former resistance as support. That would keep 1.1670 in focus and could eventually open the path toward 1.1700. Bearish Scenario A sustained move back below 1.1590 would weaken the breakout and raise the risk of a deeper correction toward the 1.1510–1.1530 demand area. For now, the breakout has happened. The question is whether buyers are willing to defend it. Would you chase EUR/USD here, or wait for the 1.1600 retest first?