ADA/USDT: H2Cardano / USDTMEXC:ADAUSDTTerminator_Crypto_Analyst🎯 TP1: $0.180351 (+0.87%) │ TP2: $0.181901 (+1.73%) 🛑 SL: $0.175981 (-1.58%) │ R/R: 1 : 1.1 ⚠️ SL is placed beyond the nearest candle tails to reduce the risk of accidental triggering FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND The sentiment in the crypto market remains cautious: the Fear and Greed Index holds in the 31–37 zone, which traditionally increases pressure on altcoins. Grayscale's withdrawal of the Cardano Trust ETF application last week deprived ADA of a potential channel for institutional inflows, though the project's regulatory outlook remains open. On-chain metrics show a mixed picture: a decline in the number of large wallets is offset by whale activity, creating grounds for volatility without a clear trend. Macroeconomic releases in recent days (PPI 13.08.2026) have had no significant impact on the market. TECHNICAL PICTURE ADX 30.8 confirms a strong trend with sellers dominating, while the price of $0.178800 is in the lower 20% of the last 100 candles' range ($0.177600–$0.204000). EMA 20 and EMA 50 converge at $0.18, forming dynamic resistance. MACD shows a neutral zone (line and signal at zero), indicating temporary equilibrium. VWAP $0.18 serves as a key level for assessing weighted average interest. PROBABILITY MODEL The current regime is assessed as bearish with a 45% probability of further decline. The probability of a bullish rebound is 35%, while sideways movement is 21%. The model's confidence coefficient is 50%, reflecting high uncertainty amid mixed signals. DIRECTION 🟢 BUY on a breakout of the dynamic EMA 20/50 resistance with confirmation from VWAP.