Losing MoM at Resistance. Is a Deeper Correction Developing?Alphabet Inc. Class CNASDAQ:GOOGmindfullylostGood Afternoon, Hope all is well. Here is my TA on Google. What I’m Seeing Looking at the weekly chart, Alphabet is still in a much larger long-term uptrend, but the shorter-term structure is starting to concern me. Price made a major run toward $400, but since that high, buyers haven't been able to regain control. The most important thing I'm seeing now is the repeated failure around the $360–$375 resistance shelf. Google has attempted to move back above this area multiple times, but hasn't been able to maintain price above it. To me, that's showing that supply is still sitting overhead. The Resistance Shelf The $360–$375 region is the first area I'm watching. This zone has repeatedly attracted sellers, and the latest attempt to move through it was rejected again. What makes this important is that we're no longer seeing the same type of momentum that carried Google higher during the previous trend. Instead, I'm seeing: rally → rejection → lower high → pressure back toward support Until Google can reclaim this resistance shelf and actually hold above it, I'm treating rallies into this area cautiously. The $314 Level Is Critical The next major level on my chart is around $314. This isn't just a random horizontal level. It lines up closely with the rising weekly trend/average that has supported the larger move. So for me, $314 is the line in the sand. If Google reaches this level and buyers step in aggressively, it could provide the foundation for another attempt higher. But if $314 breaks with convincing volume, the technical picture changes significantly. At that point, I'd be looking for a deeper correction rather than assuming every dip is a buying opportunity. Why $274 Becomes Important If $314 fails, the next area I'm watching is approximately $274. That's where I would expect price to search for the next meaningful area of demand. A move there would represent a much larger correction, but it wouldn't necessarily destroy Google's long-term story. It would simply mean the market is repricing the stock after an extremely strong run. So my downside roadmap is essentially: $338 → $314 test → if $314 fails → ~$274 I'm not assuming that sequence has to happen. I want price and volume to confirm each stage. Volume Is What Concerns Me One of the biggest things I'm watching is the lack of convincing volume supporting the current price. The weekly volume profile on my chart is declining rather than expanding. At the same time, momentum has been fading. That combination tells me buyers aren't showing the same level of aggression they showed earlier in the trend. This doesn't automatically mean Google has to collapse. But when price is sitting below resistance with declining momentum and relatively weak participation, I'm less interested in chasing upside. I want to see accumulation first. Momentum Is Cooling My momentum indicators are also showing a noticeable deterioration. The larger positive momentum wave that supported the previous rally has been declining steadily. We're still near positive territory, but the strength behind the trend is nowhere near what it was. I'm also seeing bearish signals developing in the lower indicator. So right now I have: Resistance holding Momentum declining Volume participation weakening Price approaching major weekly support That's enough for me to remain cautious. Bullish Scenario I don't think the chart is permanently bearish. There is a very clear way for Google to invalidate this setup. I want to see price reclaim the $360–$375 resistance shelf with expanding volume. More importantly, I want it to stay above that level. If that happens, the current weakness starts looking more like consolidation within the larger uptrend rather than distribution. A convincing reclaim would put the $390–$400 region back into focus, and a breakout beyond the prior high could restart the larger trend. Bearish Scenario My bearish scenario begins with a decisive break of approximately $314. I wouldn't consider a small wick underneath enough by itself. I want to see acceptance below the level, preferably accompanied by increasing selling volume. If that happens, I think the probability of a move toward approximately $274 increases considerably. The character of the selloff will matter too. A slow pullback on declining volume is very different from an impulsive breakdown with expanding volume. Fundamentals — Strong Business, But the Market Is Questioning the Cost of AI This is where the setup becomes particularly interesting. Google's underlying business is not showing the same weakness as the chart might initially suggest. Alphabet's latest reported quarter showed very strong revenue growth, and Google Cloud was particularly impressive, with revenue rising about 82% to $24.8 billion. Total quarterly revenue reached roughly $119.8 billion, while advertising revenue remained strong at approximately $81.6 billion. So fundamentally, demand for Google's products — especially cloud and AI infrastructure — remains substantial. That makes me reluctant to interpret the technical weakness as evidence that Google's core business is falling apart. The issue is something different. The AI Spending Problem Alphabet is spending an enormous amount of money to compete in AI. The company raised its expected 2026 capital expenditures to approximately $195–$205 billion, largely because demand for AI infrastructure continues to exceed available capacity. That spending is beginning to show up in cash flow. Alphabet reported approximately $5.9 billion of negative free cash flow in its latest quarter — an unusual development for a company historically known for generating huge amounts of cash. So the market is essentially asking: How much money does Google need to spend to remain competitive in AI, and how quickly will those investments generate adequate returns? That's the fundamental risk I think aligns most closely with what I'm seeing technically. But There's Another Side to the AI Story The spending isn't happening without results. Google Cloud's extraordinary growth shows that companies are actively paying for Google's AI and computing infrastructure. Alphabet has also begun recognizing revenue from direct sales of its TPU chips. Google also has advantages that very few companies can replicate: Search, YouTube, Android, Cloud, proprietary TPUs, DeepMind and its enormous global distribution network all sit inside the same ecosystem. Gemini has reportedly reached roughly 950 million monthly active users, demonstrating that Google has significant distribution for its AI products even as competition remains intense. So fundamentally, I'm not bearish on Google as a company. I'm cautious about the price investors are willing to pay while AI investment is consuming increasingly large amounts of cash. What I'm Watching Next The technical and fundamental pictures actually complement each other here. The company is growing strongly, particularly in Cloud and AI. But investors are becoming increasingly sensitive to: AI capital expenditures Free cash flow Monetization of AI investments Competition from other frontier AI companies Whether Search can maintain its economics as AI changes how people find information That's why I think volume matters so much at these levels. If institutions believe the growth ultimately justifies the spending, I would expect accumulation to become visible around major support. If that demand doesn't appear, price may need to move lower before the valuation becomes attractive enough to bring large buyers back. My Bias Right now I'm cautiously bearish on price, but not bearish on the underlying company. There's an important difference. The chart is telling me: Resistance is holding → momentum is weakening → volume isn't confirming the current price → major support is approaching. So I'm watching $314 very closely. If $314 holds and I see strong volume accumulation, I'll start looking for evidence that the correction is ending. If $314 breaks decisively, my next major downside area is around $274. On the other hand, if Google reclaims $360–$375 with strong volume, the bearish thesis starts to fall apart. For now, I'm not trying to predict the bottom. I'm waiting for volume to show me where the buyers are actually willing to defend Google. Trade Safely! Enjoy!