UK consumer confidence hits two year high despite inflation warning

Wait 5 sec.

The upside surprise, a rise to -14 against a Reuters poll consensus for a decline to -18, adds to a run of stronger than expected UK data and could feed into expectations for firmer household spending in the months ahead. The jump in the major purchases sub-index to its highest since December 2021 is the most consequential detail for retailers and durable goods sectors, since that measure tends to lead actual big ticket spending more directly than the headline gauge. The improvement is corroborated by a cluster of other confidence surveys, including YouGov/Cebr, BRC-Opinium, Barclays and LSEG/Ipsos, reducing the chance this is noise in a single dataset. Still, GfK's own note that inflation is back on the rise, alongside ongoing Middle East uncertainty, is a reminder that the improvement in sentiment is occurring against a backdrop that could still reverse if price pressures build further.---Earlier this week:UK headline inflation picks up in July, core prices hold steady---Info via Reuters. British households turned more upbeat about big purchases even as GfK warns inflation risks are creeping back.Summary:GfK's Consumer Confidence Index rose to -14 in August from -17 in July, its highest reading since August 2024 and well above a Reuters poll forecast of -18The major purchases sub-index climbed to its highest level since December 2021Four of the survey's five key sub-indexes rose in August, with only one decliningPersonal financial confidence for the next 12 months rose to its highest since January, while economic expectations reached a two year highGfK's Neil Bellamy cautioned that rising inflation and continued uncertainty in the Middle East and elsewhere still pose challenges for UK consumersOther confidence surveys, including YouGov/Cebr, BRC-Opinium, Barclays and LSEG/Ipsos, have also shown improvement over the past monthThe GfK survey, running since 1974, polled 2,000 adults between July 30 and August 12British consumer confidence rose to its highest level in two years this month, according to a survey published Friday that added to a recent run of stronger than expected UK economic data. GfK's Consumer Confidence Index climbed to -14 in August from -17 in July, well ahead of a Reuters poll of economists that had forecast a decline to -18, and marked the strongest reading since August 2024.The improvement was broad based, with four of the survey's five key sub-indexes rising over the month. The standout was the gauge measuring confidence in making major purchases, which rose to its highest level since December 2021, pointing to households becoming more willing to spend on bigger ticket items. Personal financial confidence for the next 12 months rose to its highest level since January, while expectations for the broader economy climbed to a two year high.Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, struck a note of caution despite the improved readings. He said inflation was back on the rise and that continued uncertainty in the Middle East and elsewhere still presented challenges likely to test UK consumers in the months ahead, even as the headline data pointed to a more optimistic mood.The GfK findings echo a wider pattern across UK sentiment surveys. Other gauges from YouGov/Cebr, BRC-Opinium, Barclays and LSEG/Ipsos have all recorded increases in consumer confidence over the past month, lending support to the view that the improvement is not confined to a single survey methodology. GfK's index, which has tracked UK consumer sentiment since 1974, was based on interviews with 2,000 adults conducted between July 30 and August 12, giving the reading a reasonably current window on household attitudes heading into the back half of the year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.