Moderna Stock: The Cancer Breakthrough, Start of a Bullish Wave?Moderna, Inc.BATS:MRNAKap_WavesModerna has just experienced one of the most explosive moves in its history, but the bigger story may only be beginning. The stock surged 177% this week, closing Wednesday at $174.38 after Moderna and Merck announced positive Phase 3 results for their personalized mRNA cancer treatment, intismeran. The treatment, when combined with Merck's Keytruda, showed a significant improvement in preventing melanoma from returning or spreading compared with Keytruda alone. The announcement represents an important validation of Moderna's mRNA technology beyond COVID vaccines and potentially opens the door to a much larger oncology business. But after such an explosive move, the question becomes: What happens next? From COVID Vaccine Maker to mRNA Oncology Player The cancer breakthrough could fundamentally change how investors value Moderna. The company and Merck are already testing the technology across multiple cancers, including melanoma, lung, bladder and renal-cell carcinoma, with nine Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials currently underway. The next major catalysts will therefore be the release of more detailed clinical data, regulatory discussions and additional trial results. Wall Street is already reacting. William Blair upgraded Moderna to Outperform, while Bank of America raised its target dramatically to $170 from $40, although that target is now below the price reached during the initial surge. This tells us something important: the market has repriced Moderna faster than traditional analyst models can keep up. The Technical Picture From an Elliott Wave perspective, the long-term chart is particularly interesting. Moderna peaked near $490.42 in 2021 before entering a multi-year corrective decline. That decline eventually brought the stock down to approximately $22.39 in 2025. I interpret that low as a potential completion of the larger corrective structure. If this interpretation is correct, the current advance could represent the beginning stages of a new impulsive move, potentially developing into a much larger Wave 3. The immediate challenge is the $160–$175 region, which represents an important resistance area on the weekly chart. With the stock currently around $142.85, reclaiming and holding above this zone would strengthen the bullish case. At the same time, traders should not be surprised by a significant retracement after a 177% move. A major daily gap remains between approximately $65.79 and $115.38. A pullback into this region would not necessarily invalidate the larger bullish structure. In fact, if buyers defend the zone, it could provide the consolidation needed for another major advance. What I Am Watching Next Coming weeks The focus is on whether Moderna can stabilize after the historic rally. A sustained breakout above $160–$175 would be constructive, while a deeper retracement could bring the $115–$65 gap into play. Coming months The market will increasingly focus on the actual clinical data, regulatory progress and additional oncology trials. If further results continue to validate Moderna's mRNA platform, the current rally could transition from a news-driven spike into a broader fundamental repricing. Coming years This is where the Elliott Wave structure becomes much more interesting. The chart identifies a potential $970 target as the next major upside objective. Beyond that, the larger Wave 3 projection reaches approximately $9,474. Obviously, $9,474 is an extremely long-term and highly speculative Elliott Wave projection, not a conventional price target. It would require Moderna to develop into a dramatically larger company over several years. The important point is that the current move may be the beginning of a much larger structural advance rather than simply a one-day reaction to positive news. Final Thoughts Moderna's 177% surge has completely changed the technical picture. The company now has an opportunity to prove that its mRNA platform can become a major force in oncology, while the chart suggests that the 2025 low may have marked the end of a multi-year correction. For now, $160–$175 is the key area to reclaim, while $115.38–$65.79 remains the major support zone to watch on any deeper retracement. If the bullish structure continues to develop, $970 becomes the next major Elliott Wave objective, with a much more ambitious long-term Wave 3 projection near $9,474. The cancer breakthrough may have changed Moderna's fundamentals. Now we wait to see whether price confirms the beginning of a new long-term wave. Have a stock, crypto, or market in mind you’d like me to analyze next? Drop it in the comments.