ACMR #1: The Old Channel Ceiling Is Being Tested as a FloorACM Research, Inc. Class ABATS:ACMRKazimKarabacakI anchored both tools at 24 October 2022. That anchor is not a technical choice. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party ended on 22 October 2022, and 24 October 2022 was the first US trading day after it, a day when US listed shares tied to China fell sharply. Three weeks before that, on 7 October 2022, the US export controls on advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items to China had taken effect. ACM Research supplies wafer processing equipment and its operating subsidiary sits in Shanghai, so both dates land on this company directly. From that anchor I drew a regression channel and a Fibonacci retracement to the June 2026 high. The lower regression channel is the one anchored at October 2022. Its lower band is the lower pink line, its middle line is the dashed blue line, and its upper band is the white line. The bands are the default two standard deviations from the channel mean. Pearson's R is 0.79. Above it sits the same channel cloned once, the upper cloned channel, so the white line is the lower line of the upper cloned channel as well, and the upper pink line is the top of it. The restrictions did not loosen over this stretch. The October 2022 controls were tightened in October 2023 and again in December 2024, and ACM Research kept growing under them. On 7 August 2026 ACM Research reported second quarter revenue of 292.9 million dollars, up 36 percent year over year, a GAAP gross margin of 46 percent, which is above the midpoint of the company's own 42 to 48 percent long term model, and 1.0 billion dollars in net cash at the end of the quarter. First half orders were up 105 percent year over year, and ACM Research raised its full year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of 1.125 to 1.175 billion dollars. Price crossed above the dashed blue middle line of the lower regression channel in 2026. That crossing is where the fast part of this chart begins. Later in 2026 price left the lower regression channel entirely, through the white line, and the June 2026 high was made at the upper pink line, at the top of the upper cloned channel. The fall after the June 2026 high stopped in late July 2026, between the 0.5 line at 66 and the 0.618 line at 52, and it stopped above the dashed blue middle line. More than half of the advance from October 2022 was given back there, and the 0.618 line was not reached. Price has recovered from that low to around 80, and this is where the two tools meet. The white line is the upper band of the lower regression channel and the lower line of the upper cloned channel at the same time, and the 0.382 line sits at 80.79, in the same place. The two tools share no input and arrived at the same price. The ceiling of the lower regression channel is now being tested from above. So the area around 80 is the level I watch. ACM Research holding above the white line keeps price inside the upper cloned channel, which is the part of this chart that was reached in 2026 and not before. Losing the white line puts price back inside the lower regression channel, where the dashed blue middle line, running just above the 0.618 line, is the next line under it. A daily close below the 0.618 line, at 52, would mean most of the advance since October 2022 is gone, and at that point the anchor itself comes into question.