Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle – 75% RuleBitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDsnvnzswxmpBitcoin 4-Year Cycle – 75% Rule Bitcoin has historically moved in a repeating 4-year market cycle, consisting of an expansion phase followed by a bear-market/contraction phase. A key observation in this model is the 75% point of each cycle. From one major cycle bottom to the next, approximately 75% of the 4-year cycle is spent progressing toward the market top. Once roughly 75% of the cycle has elapsed, Bitcoin has historically reached or approached its major cycle top, after which the bear-market phase begins. The remaining 25% of the cycle is generally associated with the decline and transition toward the next major cycle bottom. In simplified form: Cycle Bottom → Expansion/Bull Market → 75% of cycle → Market Top → Bear Market → Cycle Bottom → New 4-year cycle The chart illustrates this pattern across previous Bitcoin cycles. The important point is that the 75% timing should not be treated as an exact sell signal. Instead, it can be used as a higher-timeframe confluence indicating that the probability of a major top and subsequent bear market may be increasing. For trading, the cycle timing can therefore provide the macro context, while price action, market structure, volume, liquidity and order flow can be used to confirm whether the actual reversal has begun.