LEO SANDS2026年8月21日停泊在香港青衣港的油轮。 Joyce Zhou/ReutersPresident Trump has threatened “tremendous economic consequences” on any nation that does business with Iran, without offering details. The threat appeared to be his latest effort to isolate the country from the global economy and pressure its leadership into negotiating an end to the war.特朗普总统威胁称，任何与伊朗开展业务的国家都将面临“巨大的经济后果”，但没有说明具体措施。这一威胁似乎是他试图进一步将伊朗与全球经济隔绝、向伊朗领导层施压迫使其谈判结束战争的最新举措。The United States has already imposed debilitating sanctions on Iran’s economy and its leadership, and the Trump administration has previously sanctioned certain foreign businesses and organizations that trade with Tehran. Mr. Trump’s vaguely worded social media post on Wednesday seemed to suggest that he could target nations that buy Iranian oil, without naming any.美国已对伊朗经济及其领导层实施了严厉制裁，特朗普政府此前也曾制裁过某些与德黑兰有贸易往来的外国企业和组织。特朗普周三在社交媒体上措辞含糊的帖子似乎暗示，他可能会把购买伊朗石油的国家列为目标，但未点名具体国家。The president has, on occasion, backed down from such threats. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of Iran dismissed his latest warning, calling it “a diversion” from America’s own crises.特朗普总统此前也有过收回此类威胁的时候。伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐驳斥了他的最新警告，称这是在“转移视线”，以掩盖美国自身面临的危机。If Mr. Trump follows through, these are some of the countries that could be most affected:如果特朗普真的付诸行动，以下是一些可能受影响最大的国家：China中国China is Iran’s largest trading partner and the primary consumer of its oil, according to recent analysis by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a group founded by Congress to examine America’s bilateral ties to China.根据美中经济与安全审查委员会（由国会设立的研究美国对华双边关系的机构）的最新分析，中国是伊朗最大的贸易伙伴，也是其石油的主要买家。For years, China has been practically alone in its willingness to defy Western sanctions on Iranian oil, buying up to as much as 90 percent of Tehran’s oil exports. In recent months, however, Iran’s ability to ship oil by sea has been all but cut off by a U.S. naval blockade.多年来，中国几乎是唯一愿意无视西方对伊朗石油制裁的国家，购买的伊朗石油一度占德黑兰石油出口的90%。不过近几个月来，由于美国实施海上封锁，伊朗通过海运出口石油的能力几乎被完全切断。Last year, China estimated its bilateral trade with Iran to be worth nearly $10 billion, a figure that doesn’t include oil.去年，中国估计与伊朗的双边贸易额接近100亿美元，这一数字不包括石油。But from a Chinese perspective, that is a drop in the ocean compared to the size of its overall economy, said William Figueroa, an expert in Chinese-Iranian relations at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. “It wouldn’t be catastrophic for China if it was to have its trade or its ability to import Iranian oil impacted,” he said.但荷兰格罗宁根大学中伊关系专家威廉·菲格罗亚表示，从中国的角度来看，这与其整体经济规模相比只是九牛一毛。“如果中国与伊朗的贸易，或者进口伊朗石油的能力受到影响，对中国来说也不会是灾难性的，”他说。The biggest advantage Beijing draws from that trade relationship is geopolitical, said Andrea Ghiselli, a political scientist who specializes in China at the University of Exeter in England. Beijing has some interest in preserving the Iranian regime as a thorn in the side of the United States, he said.英国埃克塞特大学专攻中国研究的政治学家李安风(Andrea Ghiselli)表示，北京从这种贸易关系中获取的最大好处在于地缘政治。他说，北京有动力保留伊朗政权这个牵制美国的“眼中钉”。Dr. Ghiselli described the share of oil that China imports from Iran as marginal, and said that “it can easily be swapped out” for other sources on the global market.李安风认为，中国从伊朗进口的石油占比微不足道，“很容易就可以从全球市场上的其他来源取而代之”。In response to a question on Thursday about the possible effects of coercive U.S. economic measures, the Chinese foreign ministry’s spokesman, Lin Jian, called for all parties to resolve their differences through diplomatic channels.周四，在被问及美国强制性经济措施可能产生的影响时，中国外交部发言人林剑呼吁各方通过外交渠道解决分歧。“Sanctions and pressure will not help solve the problem,” he said.他说：“制裁施压无助于问题的解决。”India印度购物者和摊贩穿梭于新德里老城的一处果蔬批发市场。Iran was once India’s most important energy supplier. But U.S. sanctions have pushed New Delhi to reduce ties, and the value of trade between the two countries has shrunk dramatically in recent years, according to official data from the Indian embassy in Iran.伊朗曾是印度最重要的能源供应国。但美国的制裁已促使新德里减少双边关系，根据印度驻伊朗大使馆的官方数据，近年来两国贸易额大幅缩水。The data estimates that in the 2025-26 financial year, total bilateral trade was $1.63 billion, down sharply from over $17 billion in 2018-19.数据显示，在2025至2026财年，双边贸易总额为16.3亿美元，远低于2018至2019财年的170多亿美元。In 2019, India stopped buying Iranian oil altogether, under pressure from Mr. Trump. In the last financial year, Indian officials said the country mainly imported apples, pistachios, dates and kiwis from Iran.2019年，在特朗普政府的压力下，印度完全停止购买伊朗石油。印度官员说，在上一财年，印度从伊朗进口的主要商品是苹果、开心果、椰枣和猕猴桃。United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Turkey and Pakistan阿联酋、伊拉克、土耳其和巴基斯坦德黑兰大巴扎。These four Iranian trading partners also appear vulnerable to Mr. Trump’s threat, said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, chief executive of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a London-based think tank focused on Iran’s economy.总部位于伦敦、专门研究伊朗经济的智库Bourse & Bazaar Foundation首席执行官埃斯凡迪亚尔·巴特曼格利吉说，这四个伊朗贸易伙伴似乎也容易受到特朗普威胁的影响。On Wednesday, the United Arab Emirates appeared to pre-empt the president’s comments by announcing a halt to all trade and financial transactions with Iran. According to data from the World Trade Organization, Iranian-Emirati trade was worth roughly $28 billion in 2024. The Emirati decision could affect the ability of Iranian importers to pay for goods, as a lot of those financial services are provided through the U.A.E., Mr. Batmanghelidj said.周三，阿联酋似乎提前回应了特朗普的表态，宣布停止与伊朗之间的所有贸易和金融交易。根据世界贸易组织的数据，2024年伊朗与阿联酋的贸易额约为280亿美元。巴特曼格利吉说，阿联酋的决定可能会影响伊朗进口商的支付能力，因为大量相关金融服务都是通过阿联酋提供的。Pakistan and Turkey have so far been relatively shielded from U.S. economic measures against Tehran, even as they have continued significant overland trade with Iran, Mr. Batmanghelidj said.巴特曼格利吉说，尽管巴基斯坦和土耳其一直与伊朗保持规模可观的陆路贸易，但到目前为止，这两个国家受到美国针对德黑兰经济措施的影响相对有限。In 2022, the latest year for which World Trade Organization data was available, Iran imported more than $11 billion worth of goods from Turkey, its third largest source of imports that year.根据世界贸易组织可查的最新数据，伊朗2022年从土耳其进口了价值超过110亿美元的商品，后者是其第三大进口来源国。For both Pakistan and Turkey, “it is politically and geopolitically very important that both these countries maintain a good relationship with Iran,” said Mr. Batmanghelidj. “And I think this is where the Trump administration is really going to struggle.”巴特曼格利吉说，对于巴基斯坦和土耳其而言，“从政治和地缘政治角度来看，维持与伊朗的良好关系都非常重要”。“我认为，这正是特朗普政府将真正感到棘手的地方。”Burcu Ozcelik, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute research group in London, said Iraq was also vulnerable to U.S. economic pressure because of its continued trade with Iran. American sanctions have already targeted Iranian-linked groups in Iraq.伦敦皇家联合军种研究所研究员布尔库·奥兹切利克表示，伊拉克由于继续与伊朗进行贸易，也容易受到美国经济压力的影响。美国此前已经将一些与伊朗有关联的团体列为制裁对象。But Dr. Ozcelik said that broader sanctions on Iran’s trading partners would be far more complicated to impose, and that implementing them “will be slow, uneven and difficult to monitor.” It was far from clear, she added, that “greater pressure would produce the political behavior Trump is seeking.”但奥兹切利克表示，对伊朗的贸易伙伴实施更广泛的制裁要复杂得多，实施起来“将是缓慢、不均衡且难以监控的”。她还说，目前远远无法确定，“施加更大压力是否真的会促使伊朗采取特朗普所寻求的政治行为。”Keith Bradsher和Siyi Zhao对本文有研究贡献。Leo Sands是《纽约时报》突发新闻中心记者，常驻伦敦。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site