BIST 100 #1: Four Measures Since the September 2021 Rate CutBIST 100 IndexBIST_DLY:XU100KazimKarabacakThe chart The measurement starts on September 23, 2021, the day the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye began its rate cutting cycle. The chart is on the daily timeframe and on the percent scale. Next to the BIST 100 index I put four measures, to show where the BIST 100 index sits against each one: gold priced in Turkish lira, the consumer price index, the M2 money supply and the dollar against the Turkish lira. The consumer price index and the M2 money supply are published monthly, and for both of them the last value on the chart belongs to the most recently released month. The channel On the BIST 100 index I fitted a regression channel from September 23, 2021, the channel bands are the default two standard deviations, and the number is Pearson's R, 0.96. That number is high and the channel is steep, so over these nearly five years the BIST 100 index has not gone sideways, it has moved along a single slope. The BIST 100 index reached the channel upper band during the rise in the first half of 2026, the pullback that followed did not reach the channel lower band, and a wide gap was left between the BIST 100 index and the channel lower band. The BIST 100 index now sits just above the channel middle line, and the BIST 100 index is testing the channel middle line from below. What I watch The level I watch is the channel middle line. A daily close below the channel lower band would tell me this channel no longer describes the market. As long as the BIST 100 index stays above the channel lower band, the channel still describes the market, and the channel middle line stays the level I watch. The index The BIST 100 index was around 1,400 on September 23, 2021 and is around 14,250 today, up about 917 percent. Against four measures In the comparisons below, the most recently released month is used for the consumer price index and for the M2 money supply. The BIST 100 index stayed above the consumer price index, the BIST 100 index divided by the consumer price index gained about 38 percent, and spread over nearly five years that gain works out to about 7 percent a year. The BIST 100 index also stayed above the M2 money supply, and rose about 44 percent more than the M2 money supply. The BIST 100 index stayed above the dollar against the Turkish lira, so measured in dollars the BIST 100 index is up about 85 percent as well. The BIST 100 index fell behind gold, measured in gold the BIST 100 index gave back about a quarter, and gold is the only one of the four measures that left the BIST 100 index behind.