Yen: momentum recovery, but without bullish confirmationUS Dollar vs Japanese YenACTIVTRADES:USDJPYActivTrades Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades The yen has moved within a wide range defined by the 163.985 highs and the 139.571 support. The short-term bullish trend has held, with a moderately positive session yesterday, although the move remains conditioned by the evolution of the dollar and expectations regarding US fiscal and monetary policy. On the macroeconomic front, the market is closely watching signals coming from Washington. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that $4 billion does not necessarily have to be the ceiling for government debt buybacks, after the Treasury doubled the size of some operations planned for the next quarter. The objective is to strengthen market liquidity and reduce yields that, according to Bessent, are detached from economic fundamentals. At the same time, Bessent and White House Budget Director Russell Vought are preparing a fiscal consolidation strategy that contemplates savings of several hundred billion dollars through spending cuts and measures against waste, fraud and abuse. The message combines greater support for the debt market, fiscal discipline and growth expectations, a combination that could have implications for Treasury yields and, by extension, for the dollar. From a technical perspective, the RSI has been recovering since August 3, moving towards the neutral zone, although it remains around 43%. This reflects an improvement in momentum, but still without enough strength to confirm a bullish acceleration. The MACD has also reversed its trend. Both the MACD line and the signal line remain below the centre line, while the histogram remains positive, although weak. The signal points to a gradual recovery in momentum, but still without confirmation of a trend change. The Point of Control (POC) is currently at 159.312, a key reference within the range. A consolidation above this level could strengthen the recovery and open the way towards higher levels, while a loss of this level would once again increase downside pressure. The moving averages, however, remain in a bearish configuration, meaning that the underlying structure continues to be vulnerable. In this context, the evolution of the dollar and US Treasury yields will be particularly relevant for the yen: greater dollar strength could limit its recovery, while a depreciation of the greenback would favour further gains. Overall, the yen is showing an improvement in momentum, but still without bullish confirmation. The POC at 159.312, the evolution of the dollar, Treasury yields and the ability of technical indicators to consolidate their recovery will be key in determining whether the move can extend towards 163.985. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.