ALAN RAPPEPORT2026年8月20日特朗普总统曾承诺恢复财政秩序，但他旨在削减开支和增加收入的主要举措均未付诸实施。 Al Drago for The New York TimesAmerica’s gross national debt topped $40 trillion for the first time on Wednesday, an ominous milestone for an economy that sits on a shaky fiscal foundation after decades of borrowing to pay for the rising costs of the military, social safety net programs and President Trump’s tax cuts.周三，美国国家债务总额首次突破40万亿美元。对于美国经济而言，这是一个不祥的里程碑：数十年来，美国持续借贷用于支付日益增长的军费、社会保障计划以及特朗普总统的减税政策，财政基础已经摇摇欲坠。This year alone, the United States is on track to borrow more than $2 trillion to help pay for its obligations, including spending on the war in Iran and the sweeping tax cuts that Republicans enacted in 2025. Soaring interest payments to investors who have purchased America’s debt now make up about half of that red ink, pushing the United States into a deeper financial hole.仅在今年，美国就将借款超过2万亿美元以帮助履行其财务义务，包括伊朗战争开支，以及共和党人在2025年通过的大规模减税政策。向购买美国国债的投资者支付的利息激增，目前约占赤字总额的一半，将美国推向了更深的财务泥潭。Whether the mounting debt load is a problem to be solved or a function of America’s economic strength remains a matter of debate. Deficits are also a point of political gamesmanship, with Republicans most passionate about eliminating them when they are out of power.不断增加的债务负担到底是一个亟待解决的问题，还是美国经济实力的体现，这仍然是一个备受争议的问题。赤字也是政治博弈的焦点，共和党人在下野期间对于消除赤字最为热心。“The scariest thing about this is how we’re starting to see the debt spiral begin,” said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which supports deficit reduction, referring to interest on the debt.“这其中最可怕的是，我们开始看到债务螺旋上升的迹象，”支持削减赤字的“负责任联邦预算委员会”高级政策主管马克·戈德温在谈到债务利息时说。The inability of lawmakers to confront the debt comes with long-term risks. While the United States remains the world’s largest economy, its mounting debt load could lead investors to demand higher interest rates for U.S. bonds or raise questions about the nation’s creditworthiness, which could erode confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.立法者无力应对债务问题将带来长期的风险。尽管美国仍然是世界上最大的经济体，但不断增加的债务负担可能会导致投资者要求提高美国国债的利率，或对美国的信誉产生质疑，这可能会动摇人们对美元作为世界储备货币的信心。Both Republicans and Democrats are responsible for America’s borrowing burden. The United States has had to sell an increasing amount of debt to cover the costs of health programs, stimulus benefits, disaster relief and daily government operations.共和党和民主党都对美国的债务负担负有责任。美国不得不出售越来越多的债务，以支付医疗项目、刺激福利、救灾和日常政府运作的成本。President Trump has promised to restore fiscal order, yet many of his policies have only exacerbated America’s financial woes.特朗普总统曾承诺恢复财政秩序，然而他的许多政策却加剧了美国的财务困境。When he first ran for the White House in 2016, Mr. Trump said he would eliminate the national debt within eight years by making new trade deals and jump-starting economic growth. Since then, the national debt has doubled.在2016年首次竞选总统时，特朗普表示，他将通过达成新的贸易协议和刺激经济增长在八年内消除国家债务。自那以后，国家债务已经翻了一番。In his second term, Mr. Trump’s biggest initiatives to cut spending and increase revenue have failed to materialize.在第二任期内，特朗普削减开支和增加收入的主要举措均未见成效。The Department of Government Efficiency, led initially by Elon Musk, promised to reduce federal spending by $1 trillion. So far it claims to have produced savings of just over $200 billion. The Government Accountability Office said this month that the department’s estimate lacked reliability and transparency.最初由埃隆·马斯克领导的政府效率部曾承诺将联邦支出削减1万亿美元。迄今为止，该部门声称仅节省了略多于2000亿美元。美国政府问责局本月表示，政府效率部的估计缺乏可靠性和透明度。The Trump administration was making progress in collecting additional government revenue by imposing sweeping tariffs on imports. Those plans were derailed this year when the Supreme Court ruled that some of those tariffs were illegal, forcing the federal government to refund more than $160 billion of the money to companies that paid the import duties.通过对进口商品征收全面关税，特朗普政府此前在增加政府额外收入方面取得了进展。但今年，最高法院裁定其中部分关税违法，迫使联邦政府向已缴纳进口关税的企业退还超过1600亿美元，导致这些计划受挫。Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who set a goal of reducing the deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2028 from over 6 percent when Mr. Trump took office, acknowledged last week that deficits were going in the wrong direction this year.财政部长贝森特曾设定目标，计划将赤字从特朗普就任时的国内生产总值的6%以上降至2028年的3%。他上周承认，今年的赤字状况正朝着错误的方向发展。In an interview with Newsmax, Mr. Bessent offered several reasons to explain why deficits are growing. He said that spending associated with the war with Iran had forced the country to spend more on the military, and that tariff refunds had undercut the Trump administration’s progress toward reducing the deficit as a share of gross domestic product in 2025. The war in Iran, which has caused energy prices to rise in the United States, has also been a drag on economic growth and diminished the expansion that Trump administration officials had hoped would increase tax revenue.在接受Newsmax采访时，贝森特给出了赤字增长的几个原因。他表示，与伊朗战争相关的开支迫使美国增加了军事支出，关税退款则削弱了特朗普政府在2025年降低赤字占国内生产总值比例方面取得的进展。伊朗战争导致美国能源价格上涨，也拖累了经济增长，并削弱了特朗普政府官员原本希望能够增加税收的经济扩张。Mr. Bessent also said last year’s tax cuts were adding to deficits because businesses were taking advantage of a provision allowing them to immediately deduct the cost of factory construction and equipment. According to estimates from the Joint Committee on Taxation, those measures could cost $100 billion this year. However, the Treasury secretary said that despite their initial cost, the cuts would pay off in the future with additional revenue.贝森特还表示，去年的减税政策正在增加赤字，因为企业正在利用一项允许他们立即扣除工厂建设和设备成本的条款。根据国会税务联合委员会的估计，这些措施今年可能造成1000亿美元的财政支出。然而，这位财政部长表示，尽管初期有成本，但这些减税措施将在未来通过增加的收入获得回报。“That is a hit now to the deficit, but we are creating productive assets for future growth which will be paying taxes down the line,” Mr. Bessent said. “I think of that more as like pulling back a slingshot and creating a lot of potential energy that becomes kinetic.”“虽然这目前会扩大赤字，但我们正在为未来的增长创造生产性资产，这些资产将来会带来税收，”贝森特说。“我更愿意把这比作是拉开弹弓，创造大量的势能，然后转化成动能。”Despite his confidence that the fiscal trajectory will stabilize, investors have been demonstrating their anxiety over U.S. deficits by demanding greater compensation for holding American bonds. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries hit its highest level in nearly two decades this week, meaning higher borrowing costs for inflation-weary consumers and businesses.尽管他相信财政走势将趋于稳定，投资者却出于对美国财政赤字的担忧要求提高持有美国国债的回报。30年期美国国债收益率本周触及近20年来的最高水平，这意味着饱受通胀之苦的消费者和企业的借贷成本将会更高。A degree of concern within the Trump administration was evident when Mr. Bessent made a rare intervention in currency markets to prop up the weakening Japanese yen. The move was intended, in part, to prevent Japan from selling its holdings of U.S. Treasuries to prop up its currency.当贝森特罕见地干预外汇市场以支撑疲软的日元时，特朗普政府内部一定程度的担忧显而易见。此举部分目的是为了防止日本抛售其持有的美国国债来支撑本国货币。And on Wednesday, Mr. Bessent said the Treasury Department would double the amount of its own debt that it is permitted to buy back from investors in a bid to contain borrowing costs.周三，贝森特表示，财政部将把获准从投资者手中回购的自身债务规模翻倍，以期遏制借贷成本。Traders in the Treasury market have often brushed aside concerns about the amount of U.S. government debt outstanding. There is no market that is as deep, liquid or central to the global financial system, meaning there are few real competitors and it would take a seismic shift to suddenly deter buyers in a material way.美国国债市场的交易员经常对美国政府未偿债务规模的担忧不屑一顾。没有任何市场能像美国国债市场那样极为深厚、流动性强，且处于全球金融体系的核心地位，这意味着几乎没有真正的竞争对手，除非发生剧变，否则很难在短期内实质性地吓退买家。But changes are potentially afoot that have kept investors on edge. One source of uncertainty stems from the Federal Reserve, which maintains a $6.8 trillion portfolio of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities.但潜在的变化正在酝酿之中，这让投资者保持着警惕。不确定性的一个来源是美联储，该机构持有6.8万亿美元的政府债券和抵押贷款支持证券投资组合。Kevin M. Warsh, who took over as chairman in May, has made it a top priority to reduce those holdings, which grew primarily during past crises as the Fed stepped in to shore up markets. Mr. Warsh has yet to lay out a specific plan and is likely to wait until the task force he charged with reviewing the balance sheet completes its work by year-end.5月接任美联储主席的凯文·沃什已将减少这些持仓作为首要任务，这些持仓主要是在以往危机期间美联储为稳定市场出手干预时积累的。沃什尚未提出具体计划，可能会等到他负责审查资产负债表的工作组在年底完成工作后才会行动。Changes to the composition of the Fed’s balance sheet — meaning a larger portion of the central bank’s holdings are held in short-term notes versus long-term bonds — may have only a modest impact on the market. But any attempt to substantially shrink the Fed’s holdings, especially if it is through outright sales, would be much more disconcerting, traders say.美联储资产负债表构成的变化——即央行持有的短期票据占比上升、长期债券占比下降——可能只会对市场产生适度影响。但交易员表示，任何大幅缩减美联储持仓的尝试都会引发更大的市场不安，尤其是如果通过直接抛售来进行。In the meantime, the costs of funding the military and paying for programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid continue to rise, and lawmakers facing elections are loath to push too hard for spending cuts or tax increases.与此同时，军费开支以及为社会保障、联邦医疗保险和联邦医疗补助等项目付款的成本持续上升，面临选举的议员们不愿在大力推动削减开支或增税方面走得太远。“Our federal programs spend much more than the government takes in, and the biggest-ticket items in the federal budget are all running on autopilot,” said Margaret Spellings, president of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank. “Even in the rosiest scenarios, we’re speeding toward a cliff and refusing to turn the wheel.”“我们联邦项目的支出远超政府的收入，而且联邦预算中最大的项目都在自动运行，”智库两党政策中心主席玛格丽特·斯佩林斯说。“即使在最乐观的情境下，我们也是在加速冲向悬崖，却拒绝转动方向盘。”Colby Smith自纽约对本文有报道贡献。Alan Rappeport是时报驻华盛顿的经济政策记者。 他负责报道财政部并撰写有关税收、贸易和财政事务的文章。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site