It’s about three months until the Victorian state election on November 28. Five polls have been released since Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier on July 28. These polls have the Coalition leading Labor after preferences by between 51–49 (Morgan SMS) and 57–43 (Redbridge).In four of the five polls, One Nation has dropped from the previous edition of those polls, although they were up one point in Resolve. One Nation’s drop to the low 20s makes it easier for the Coalition to win a majority of the 88 lower house seats. The Coalition and Labor are the leaders on primary votes, so the election is looking more like a standard two-party contest.Carroll’s ratings are far better than Allan’s were, but he’s still on a negative net approval, except in Morgan. There hasn’t been any improvement on voting intentions for Labor since the change in premier. Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s net approval is in positive double digits and her popularity is helping the Coalition.Labor has governed in Victoria for the last 12 years and 23 of the last 27, so there’s probably an “it’s time” factor.The Resolve poll is below. I’ve previously covered the DemosAU, Morgan, Freshwater and Redbridge polls.Victorian Resolve pollA Victorian state Resolve poll for The Age, conducted August 9–15 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Coalition 27% of the primary vote (steady since the early July Resolve poll), Labor 25% (down two), One Nation 23% (up one), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 7% (steady) and others 6% (up one).This is Labor’s lowest primary vote in a Victorian Resolve poll since before the May 2025 federal election.Resolve doesn’t usually publish a two-party estimate for its state polls, but this one gave the Coalition a 53–47 lead over Labor by respondent preferences. In contests between Labor and the Coalition, One Nation preferences favoured the Coalition by 77–23. In contests between the Coalition and One Nation, Labor preferences favoured the Coalition by 73–27.This means the Coalition should gain on preferences if they can finish in the top two in a seat. Their low primary vote understates their strength in the single-member system that is used for the lower house.Carroll’s net likeability was -4, far better than Allan’s -36 in July. Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s jumped five points to +18, to tie March to April for a record high. One Nation state leader Warren Pickering had a net zero likeability.In a three-way preferred premier question, Wilson had 26%, Carroll 20% and Pickering 10%. Wilson had led Allan by 43–24 in July.By 46–34, respondents did not think Carroll replacing Allan as Labor leader represented a genuinely significant change in direction and performance. By 46–34, they thought Wilson and the Liberals were capable of governing the state effectively.By 72–3, respondents thought politicians should be questioned publicly about corruption of the Big Build infrastructure program once a royal commmission is established.Queensland Resolve pollA Queensland state Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted with the federal July and August Resolve polls from a sample of 868, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34% of the primary vote (up four since the June Resolve poll), Labor 25% (up one), One Nation 20% (down four), the Greens 10% (steady), independents 6% (up one) and others 5% (down one).No two-party estimate was released, but analyst Kevin Bonham has the LNP leading Labor by about 55–45.LNP Premier David Crisafulli’s net likeability was steady at +16. Labor leader Steven Miles’ was up five points to -6. Crisafulli led Miles as preferred premier by 41–22 (previously 44–20).WA Secret Harbour byelection on August 29A byelection for the Western Australian Labor-held state seat of Secret Harbour will occur on August 29 after former Labor MP Paul Papalia resigned in July. At the March 2025 WA election, Papalia defeated the Liberals after preferences by 61.5–38.5 from primary votes of 46.6% Papalia, 25.0% Liberals, 8.8% Greens, 8.4% One Nation and 5.9% Legalise Cannabis.The ABC says Secret Harbour has many more people who have vocational qualifications rather than a university education and it has low ethnic diversity. One Nation does well with these demographics. There are a total of 16 candidates for the byelection, including Labor, One Nation, the Liberals and the Greens.The last WA state poll from DemosAU in early June gave Labor a 53–47 two-party lead over the Liberals, down from 57–43 at the 2025 election, from primary votes of 33% Labor, 23% Liberals, 3% Nationals, 18% One Nation, 12% Greens and 11% for all Others. Read more: Grattan on Friday: why a byelection in Western Australia has turned into a national test for One Nation Federal Morgan pollA national Morgan poll, conducted August 10–16 from a sample of 1,576, gave Labor 28.5% of the primary vote (up three since the August 3–9 Morgan poll), One Nation 25% (down one), the Coalition 23.5% (up 1.5), the Greens 12.5% (down three) and all Others 10.5% (down 0.5).By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by an unchanged 53–47. They led the Coalition by 52–48, a one-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 51.5–48.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.