XAU/USD: Market Analysis and Strategy for August 18GoldOANDA:XAUUSDActuaryJInflation fears sparked by the recent surge in oil prices are quietly becoming a looming threat to gold prices. While geopolitical conflicts are traditionally viewed as a catalyst for safe-haven assets, they may currently be suppressing gold's upside potential by driving up energy costs. After climbing to 4,436, gold has entered a consolidation phase and is currently trading near $4,400. Yesterday, during the US trading session, gold bottomed out at $4,377 before rebounding sharply to reclaim the $4,410 level. In today's Asian session, the bullish momentum continued; gold spiked to $4,436 before pulling back and is currently trading near $4,393. The KDJ indicator shows a "golden cross," but the lines are turning downward within the overbought zone, suggesting limited near-term upside. The MACD indicator also shows a "golden cross," yet the bullish momentum bars are shrinking. Additionally, the US Dollar Index is trending bullish on the 1-hour and 2-hour charts, which is a bearish factor for gold. The intraday outlook favors a scenario where gold spikes and then retreats. On the hourly chart, gold has retreated after an initial surge; the KDJ indicator is turning downward and shifting toward a "death cross," while MACD bullish momentum bars are contracting, signaling a potential shift to a bearish short-term trend. Considering the daily chart, the intraday strategy favors selling into rallies; while short-term bullish positions may be held, attention should be paid to resistance levels at $4,436 (Asian session high) and $4,350 (last week's level). My recommendation: SELL: 4,420–4,425 | SL: 4,435 | TP: 4,380–4,365