ETH: Can It Hold Support Around 1,861.57?Ethereum / TetherUSBINANCE:ETHUSDTreadCrypto Hello, traders. Thank you for following my analysis. If you follow me, you can receive new market updates as soon as they are published. Wishing you successful trading today. ================================================== ■ BTC and ETH: Similar Price Action, One Key Difference ======================================================= BTC and ETH are the two major assets representing the crypto market. Their price movements therefore have a significant influence on overall crypto market sentiment and trend direction. When comparing BTC and ETH, their volatility may differ, but their overall price structures currently look quite similar. However, there is one important difference that deserves attention: ▶ "Where is the current price positioned relative to the mid-term low zone?" This difference may help determine whether BTC or ETH is more likely to lead the market's next short-term directional move. --- ## ■ BTC and ETH Mid-Term Low Levels BTC : 66,323.12 ETH : 1,782.28 Based on the current price structure, ETH may have a greater influence on the crypto market's short-term direction. However, even if ETH takes the lead, its influence may remain relatively short-lived. For ETH to generate a meaningful rally, BTC ideally needs to avoid another sharp decline and consolidate within a defined range. ================================================== ■ If BTC Consolidates, Watch ETH Closely ======================================== If BTC remains range-bound within ▶ 59,981.47 ~ 66,323.12 and ETH begins to develop bullish momentum at the same time, the broader crypto market may have a higher probability of entering a short-term rebound or bullish phase. The first key level to watch on ETH is ▶ 1,964.96 The 1,964.96 level is an important price point for determining whether ETH can begin transitioning bullish from its short-term low structure. Therefore, if ETH breaks above 1,964.96 and successfully holds above it, short-term bullish momentum may strengthen. --- ## ■ Why 1,861.57 Matters for ETH The 1,861.57 level is an important reference point for evaluating a potential mid-term bullish transition. Therefore, we need to watch whether ETH can establish support around 1,861.57 and rebound from this area. However, ▶ Support at 1,861.57 ≠ Confirmation of a mid-term bullish trend. To increase the probability of a mid-term bullish transition, ▶ A breakout and hold above 1,964.96 should first be confirmed. For a clearer confirmation of a mid-term bullish reversal, ▶ ETH needs to rise above 2,111.42. Therefore, ETH's current structure should be monitored step by step: 1. Confirm support around 1,861.57 2. Break above and hold 1,964.96 3. Confirm a breakout above 2,111.42 4. Watch for a potential breakout above 2,317.39 ================================================== ■ ETH Key Price Levels ====================== The major ETH price levels can be summarized as follows: 1. 1,666.58 ~ 1,782.28 → Key short-term and mid-term low zone → Major support zone to monitor during further downside 2. 1,861.57 ~ 2,111.42 → Key zone for evaluating a potential mid-term bullish transition → Support and breakout behavior within this range will be important 3. 1,964.96 → Key level for confirming a potential short-term bullish transition → A breakout followed by a successful hold above this level is important 4. 2,317.39 → Major short-term high and overhead resistance → The next key level after breaking above the 1,861.57 ~ 2,111.42 zone Therefore, the ideal bullish progression would be: 1,861.57 Support ↓ 1,964.96 Breakout & Hold ↓ 2,111.42 Breakout ↓ 2,317.39 Test On the other hand, if ETH fails to hold around 1,861.57, we should also consider the possibility of a retest of the lower ▶ 1,666.58 ~ 1,782.28 support zone. ================================================== ■ BTC Volatility Window: August 17 ~ 19 ======================================= The next important market variable is BTC's upcoming volatility window. BTC's next major volatility period is expected around ▶ August 18 ▶ Expected window: August 17 ~ 19 Therefore, BTC's directional move during and after this period could become an important factor in determining the short-term direction of the broader crypto market. --- ## ■ BTC 62,793.20 Support Is Critical The key BTC level to watch right now is ▶ 62,793.20 The 62,793.20 level is an important reference point for evaluating a potential bullish transition from BTC's short-term low structure. Therefore, whether BTC can hold support around this level and rebound will be critical. More importantly, for a sustainable bullish move to develop from a key price level, price action alone is not enough. Bullish momentum should also be confirmed through the supporting indicators. ================================================== ■ SBOD Check: StochRSI · OBV · BSSC =================================== For a bullish transition to develop around an important level or zone, we need to monitor: ▶ StochRSI ▶ OBV ▶ BSSC These indicators are currently showing an overall bearish/downward bias. Therefore, it is especially important to determine whether genuine buying pressure begins to emerge and support develops around the current price area. However, StochRSI has entered the oversold region, which is worth monitoring closely. An oversold StochRSI does NOT necessarily mean: "Price will immediately rise." Instead, it suggests: ▶ Downside momentum may begin to weaken. Therefore, StochRSI entering oversold territory alone should not be treated as confirmation of a market bottom or bullish reversal. The direction of BSSC and OBV should also be monitored. In particular, if the following developments begin to appear: ▶ BSSC turns upward ▶ OBV stabilizes and begins turning upward ▶ StochRSI exits the oversold region and turns upward then the probability of support forming around the current price area may increase. ================================================== ■ Key Market Scenarios ====================== 1,861.57 Support ↓ 1,964.96 Breakout & Hold ↓ 2,111.42 Breakout ↓ 2,317.39 Test 62,793.20 Support ↓ SBOD Bullish Turn ↓ Short-Term Bullish Momentum Recovery BTC holds the 59,981.47 ~ 66,323.12 range + ETH holds 1,861.57 and breaks above 1,964.96 ↓ Higher probability of a short-term crypto market rally ================================================== ■ Conclusion ============ The first thing to watch in the current market is whether ETH can establish support around 1,861.57. If support is confirmed around 1,861.57 and ETH subsequently breaks above and holds 1,964.96, short-term bullish momentum may strengthen. If ETH then breaks above 2,111.42, the probability of a mid-term bullish transition could increase further. On the other hand, if ETH fails to hold around 1,861.57, traders should be prepared for a potential retest of the 1,666.58 ~ 1,782.28 support zone. BTC also needs to establish support around 62,793.20. In particular, BTC's expected volatility window from August 17 to August 19 could lead to a significant expansion in price movement. Therefore, it will be important to monitor not only price action but also changes in StochRSI, OBV, and BSSC momentum. The key points to watch are: ▶ BTC : Support at 62,793.20 ▶ ETH : Support at 1,861.57 ▶ ETH : Breakout and hold above 1,964.96 ▶ ETH : Breakout above 2,111.42 for stronger mid-term bullish confirmation ▶ BTC : Volatility expansion around August 17 ~ 19 Rather than predicting market direction simply because price has reached an important level, it is better to confirm the market step by step: "Support Confirmation → Indicator Momentum Turns Bullish → Key Resistance Breakout → Hold Above Resistance" --- Thank you for reading until the end. Wishing you successful trading.