Fundamental Market Analysis for August 18, 2026 GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarSAXO:GBPUSDFresh-Forexcast2004The pound enters the current session with support from the relative resilience of the UK economy. Recent data showed stronger-than-expected GDP growth in June, while the labor market has yet to provide a clear signal of a sharp deterioration. At the same time, expectations for another Bank of England rate increase remain in place, supporting the British currency. Today’s employment figures require a more cautious assessment: the unemployment rate declined to 4.8%, while the number of unemployment benefit claims increased. This combination does not provide a strong independent driver for the pound, but neither does it eliminate expectations that UK interest rates will remain relatively high. For GBPUSD, the more important factor remains weaker demand for the US dollar following a series of soft US economic releases. The probability of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike has declined noticeably, while the Bank of England continues to face the risk of persistent price pressures, including those stemming from high energy costs. This preserves the pound’s relative advantage, although upcoming inflation data could change the market’s assessment. As long as the US dollar remains under pressure, the upward scenario for GBPUSD retains priority. Trading idea: BUY 1.35500, SL 1.35150, TP 1.36300