DAVID E. SANGER, ANTON TROIANOVSKI2026年8月18日2019年，特朗普总统与朝鲜领导人金正恩在朝韩非军事区会面。 Erin Schaff/The New York TimesThe last time President Trump vowed to halt a country’s nuclear weapons program, he held three face-to-face meetings with Kim Jong-un of North Korea, declared that the two men had developed a “great relationship” and walked away empty-handed.特朗普总统上一次信誓旦旦地要阻止一个国家的核武器计划时，他与朝鲜领导人金正恩举行了三次面对面会谈，宣称两人已经建立了“非常好的关系”，最终却空手而归。That was in Mr. Trump’s first term. Not only did the diplomatic effort fail, but Mr. Kim immediately hit the accelerator on his program and today possesses roughly 60 nuclear weapons, by some estimates, as well as missiles that appear capable of reaching the United States — exactly the combination Mr. Trump had vowed to dismantle.那还是在特朗普的第一个任期内。那次外交努力不仅以失败告终，金正恩还立即加速推进核计划。如今，据一些估计，朝鲜拥有大约60枚核武器，以及似乎能够打到美国本土的导弹——这正是特朗普曾誓言要消除的武器组合。For months now, proliferation experts have questioned whether Mr. Trump could also end up walking away from his efforts to check Iran’s nuclear program — especially now that he appears to be more focused on getting the Strait of Hormuz open than on dealing with Iran’s stockpiles of uranium, which are buried under rubble after the United States bombed them in June 2025.数月来，核扩散问题专家一直在质疑，特朗普是否也可能在遏制伊朗核计划的努力中空手而归——尤其是现在，他似乎更加关注如何让霍尔木兹海峡恢复畅通，而不是如何处理伊朗的铀库存。那些铀库存在2025年6月遭到美国轰炸后，被掩埋在废墟之下。Stymied in Iran, Mr. Trump is increasingly turning his sights back to North Korea, even though analysts see little hope of quickly dismantling that country’s growing nuclear arsenal.在伊朗问题上受阻之后，特朗普正越来越多地把目光重新转向朝鲜，尽管分析人士认为，要迅速解除朝鲜不断扩大的核武库几乎没有什么希望。Mr. Trump’s social media declaration on Sunday night, praising Mr. Kim and publicly ordering Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to diminish America’s role in an annual military exercise with South Korea, one of America’s allies in the Pacific, appeared intended to signal that he wants to resume negotiations. A day later, it remained unclear just how the Pentagon would scale back its role in the 11-day exercise, and a one-line statement sent to reporters by the Pentagon press office on Monday afternoon did not provide any clarity.特朗普周日晚间在社交媒体上发文，称赞金正恩，并公开要求国防部长皮特·海格塞斯降低美国在美韩军演的参与程度——韩国是美国在太平洋地区的盟友之一。这似乎是在释放信号，表明他希望恢复与朝鲜的谈判。一天之后，外界仍不清楚五角大楼究竟会如何缩减美军在这场为期11天的军演中的参与程度。五角大楼新闻办公室周一下午发给记者一份一句话声明，其中也没有提供任何明确的信息。“The Department of War is actively working on executing the commander in chief’s directive,” the statement said, using the Trump administration’s name for the Department of Defense.“战争部正在积极落实三军统帅的指示，”声明中写道，这里使用的是特朗普政府对国防部的称呼。Robert Litwak, a scholar at George Washington University who has written about the nuclear programs in both North Korea and Iran, called the contrast between Mr. Trump’s approaches to those two countries “an incredible tale of two rogue states.”乔治·华盛顿大学的学者罗伯特·利特瓦克曾撰写过有关朝鲜和伊朗核计划的著作。他把特朗普对待这两个国家截然不同处理方式称为“两个流氓国家的传奇对比”。“We’re at war with Iran, a nuclear-threshold state,” he said. “But with North Korea we are placating a dictator who can target the U.S. homeland with nuclear weapons.”他说：“我们正在与伊朗这个已经达到核门槛的国家交战。但对于朝鲜，我们却在安抚一个能够用核武器攻击美国本土的独裁者。”Mr. Trump’s outburst was also aimed at punishing the South Koreans for declining to join in the war against Iran, a position that deeply angered Mr. Trump. It was a point he made in the same social media post and reiterated to reporters in the Oval Office on Monday.特朗普这次爆发也是为了惩罚韩国拒绝参与对伊朗的战争，韩国的这一立场令特朗普大为光火。他在同一条社交媒体帖子中提到了这一点，并于周一在椭圆形办公室接受记者提问时再次强调。The president has also been angry that Seoul has been slow to deliver on what the White House believes is a $350 billion promise for new investments, including in shipbuilding. Last October, Mr. Trump visited South Korea and celebrated its future investments in the United States, including a promised multibillion-dollar expansion of Samsung’s chip-making plant in Texas.特朗普还对首尔迟迟没有落实新的投资承诺感到不满，按照白宫的说法，这笔投资高达3500亿美元，涉及造船业等领域。去年10月，特朗普访问韩国，并大肆宣扬韩国未来将在美国进行的投资，其中包括三星承诺投入数十亿美元扩大其在得克萨斯州的芯片制造工厂。“Trump defaults back to the complaint about South Korean free-riding” on America’s troop presence on the Korean Peninsula, said Scott A. Snyder, the president and chief executive of the Korea Economic Institute of America, “and he uses the security relationship as a lever to put more pressure on the South Korean government.”“特朗普总是回到对韩国在驻韩美军问题上‘搭便车’的抱怨，”美国韩国经济研究所所长兼首席执行官斯科特·斯奈德说，“他把安全关系作为向韩国政府施加更大压力的杠杆。”Looming over the tensions is Mr. Trump’s inability to extract the United States from the Iran war. He has hinted at his eagerness in recent months to move on from that conflict and return to dealing with Mr. Kim — who indulged Mr. Trump’s desire for leader-to-leader talks with those summits during Mr. Trump’s first term.笼罩在这些紧张关系之上的是特朗普无法将美国从伊朗战争中抽身的现实。近几个月来，他已经暗示自己急于结束这场冲突，重新转而处理金正恩问题——而在特朗普第一任期内，金正恩曾通过与特朗普举行峰会满足了后者对于领导人之间直接会谈的渴望。President Lee Jae Myung of South Korea said in June that Mr. Trump appeared to want to resume talks with Mr. Kim, and Mr. Trump posted a picture of himself with the North Korean leader on social media at least twice in recent months.韩国总统李在明6月表示，特朗普似乎希望恢复与金正恩的谈判；近几个月来，特朗普至少两次在社交媒体上发布自己与朝鲜领导人的合影。“Kim Jong Un and I get along GREAT!” Mr. Trump wrote alongside a photograph he posted on Saturday of their meeting at the border between North and South Korea in 2019.“金正恩和我相处得非常好！”特朗普周六在一张2019年自己与朝鲜领导人于朝韩边境会面的照片旁写道。Mr. Trump followed that up with another chummy post on Monday, this one a meme showing Mr. Kim making a phone call with military officers standing behind him. The caption read: “Hey Donald, we cool … right?”特朗普周一又发了一篇语气亲昵的帖子，这一次是一个表情包，画面中的金正恩正在打电话，身后站着几名军官。配文写道：“嘿，唐纳德，我们挺好的……对吧？”The North Korean nuclear program has been a deep concern since the late 1980s, long before Iran’s nuclear program was on the radar. In 1994, during a crisis triggered by North Korea’s expulsion of international nuclear inspectors, the Clinton administration debated a military strike on the North Korean facility at Yongbyon. But it held back, and later that year former President Jimmy Carter struck a deal with Kim Il-sung, the grandfather of the current North Korean leader, to end the nuclear program in return for help building civilian nuclear reactors.朝鲜的核计划早在20世纪80年代末就已经引发严重担忧，远远早于伊朗核计划进入国际视野。1994年，朝鲜驱逐国际核查人员，引发一场危机。当时克林顿政府曾讨论对朝鲜的宁边核设施发动军事打击，但最终没有采取行动。同年晚些时候，前总统吉米·卡特与朝鲜现任领导人的祖父金日成达成协议，以终止核计划换取帮助建设民用核反应堆。It all fell apart, and subsequent efforts to bring the North Korean program under control failed. In 2006, the North conducted its first nuclear test, and followed with five more, the most recent in 2017.但这一切最终化为泡影，此后为控制朝鲜核计划所作的努力也一次次失败。2006年，朝鲜进行了首次核试验，之后又进行了五次，最近一次是在2017年。The next year, having labeled Mr. Kim “Little Rocket Man,” Mr. Trump met the North Korean leader in Singapore. After their encounter, he told a New York Times reporter that he expected that the North would dismantle its program fast. “It’s going to go very quickly,” he said after the summit. “I really believe that it’s going to go fast. And it is a very substantial arsenal. There’s no question about it.”次年，特朗普在给金正恩贴上“小火箭人”的标签后，在新加坡与这位朝鲜领导人举行了会晤。会面之后，他告诉《纽约时报》记者，他预计朝鲜会很快会废除核计划。“进展会非常快，”他在峰会结束后说。“我真的相信会很快。而且它的核武库规模非常庞大。这一点毫无疑问。”But while Mr. Trump recalls the encounters fondly — during the first term, he would bring out Mr. Kim’s letters to him and read excerpts to visitors in the Oval Office — they went down in history as a diplomatic failure. A second summit, in Vietnam, ended with a collapse of the talks. Mr. Trump went into the sessions ill-prepared, his national security adviser at the time, John R. Bolton, said later, and the effort fell apart when Mr. Kim refused to dismantle facilities outside the main enrichment and reprocessing center at Yongbyon.但尽管特朗普愉快地回忆着这些会面——在第一任期时，他经常拿出金正恩写给他的信，在椭圆形办公室向来访者朗读片段——这些会面在历史上还是被记录为一次外交失败。在越南举行的第二次峰会以谈判破裂告终。时任国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿后来表示，特朗普对会谈准备不足，当金正恩拒绝拆除宁边主要浓缩和后处理中心以外的设施时，努力遂告失败。Some fear the same thing could happen again. “Another Trump-Kim summit, which is what the president seems to be angling for, could be a disaster,” said Joel S. Wit, a former State Department diplomat who was involved in early talks with the North and wrote a history of the effort, “Fallout: The Inside Story of America’s Failure to Disarm North Korea.”一些人担心，同样的事情可能会再次发生。“特朗普与金正恩再次举行峰会——这正是总统现在似乎在谋求的事情——可能会是一场灾难，”曾参与美朝早期谈判、并撰写了相关历史著作《后果：美国未能解除朝鲜武装的内幕》(Fallout: The Inside Story of America’s Failure to Disarm North Korea)的前国务院外交官乔尔·维特说。“Trump doesn’t seem to realize that the Kim Jong-un of today isn’t interested in better relations with the United States,” Mr. Wit said. “He is hellbent on keeping his nuclear weapons, sending troops to Ukraine to support his Russian ally and threatening South Korea.”维特说：“特朗普似乎没有意识到，今天的金正恩对改善与美国的关系根本没有兴趣。他铁了心要保住自己的核武器，要派兵前往乌克兰支持他的俄罗斯盟友，还要威胁韩国。”On Monday, critics of Mr. Trump’s foreign policy quickly attacked the president for undercutting a key alliance. Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, said Mr. Trump had made “another inane, haphazard decision” that punished South Korea “for no reason beyond Trump’s ego.”周一，特朗普外交政策的批评者很快抨击总统削弱了一个关键盟友。罗德岛州民主党参议员、参议院军事委员会民主党首席议员杰克·里德说，特朗普又作出了“一个愚蠢、草率的决定”，而惩罚韩国“除了特朗普的自负之外，没有任何理由”。Victor D. Cha, a Georgetown University professor who worked on Asia policy in the George W. Bush White House, described Mr. Trump’s social media outburst as a symptom, at least in part, of the president’s frustration over Iran. He noted that Mr. Trump’s charm offensive directed at Mr. Kim came as the president tried to maintain his hard line against Tehran, a study in contrasts in Mr. Trump’s approach to perhaps the world’s two most vexing nuclear proliferation challenges.乔治城大学教授、曾在小布什政府负责亚洲政策的车维德(Victor D. Cha)认为，特朗普这次在社交媒体上的爆发至少在一定程度上反映了总统因伊朗问题而产生的挫败感。他指出，特朗普对金正恩发起魅力攻势的同时，正试图继续对德黑兰采取强硬立场，这体现了特朗普面对全球可能最棘手的两个核扩散挑战时截然不同的处理方式。“He’s kind of trending in two opposite directions,” Mr. Cha said. “He’s trending in the direction of pragmatically negotiating with a nuclear North Korea. But in the case of Iran, he’s taken an absolutist stance.”“他似乎在朝两个相反的方向走，”车维德说。“一方面，他在务实地与拥核的朝鲜进行谈判；但在伊朗问题上，他却采取了绝对强硬的立场。”Mr. Trump defended his approach to North Korea in the Oval Office on Monday. Asked by a reporter whether he was prioritizing the interests of U.S. adversaries over allies, the president shot back: “I’m making it much safer.”周一，特朗普在椭圆形办公室为自己对朝鲜的做法进行了辩护。当记者问他是否把美国对手的利益置于盟友之上时，总统反问道：“我正在让它变得更安全。”“Kim Jong-un has always treated me with great respect,” the president added. “I understand him. He understands me.”总统还说：“金正恩一直非常尊重我。我理解他。他也理解我。”But Mr. Kim is also closely watching Mr. Trump’s war on Iran, analysts say. That war has shown North Korea, Mr. Cha said, “that they are right to pursue nuclear weapons to avoid a military strike.”但分析人士表示，金正恩也在密切关注特朗普对伊朗的战争。车维德说，这场战争向朝鲜表明，“他们追求核武器是对的，因为这样可以避免遭到军事打击。”Eric Schmitt对本文有报道贡献。David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有四本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。Anton Troianovski自华盛顿为《纽约时报》报道有关美国外交政策和国家安全的文章。他此前曾在莫斯科和柏林任驻外记者。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site