RIVER AKIRA DAVIS2026年8月18日日元涨势已消退，汇率正逼近160日元兑1美元，这一水平可能会考验东京和华盛顿官员的决心。 The Yomiuri Shimbun, via Associated PressThe Japanese yen has resumed its slide over the past two weeks, surrendering ground it gained after the United States and Japan spent tens of billions of dollars to prop up the currency languishing near four-decade lows.日元在过去两周重启跌势，回吐了美日两国花费数百亿美元干预汇市后所获得的涨幅——在干预前，日元汇率已跌至近40年低点。The yen briefly strengthened to 155 per dollar intraday after the intervention in late July. But the rally quickly faded, and on Friday, the currency was trading at around 159 to the dollar. Its renewed slide is approaching the 160-yen level that could test the resolve of officials in Tokyo and Washington, who said they would not hesitate to intervene again if “disorderly yen movements” persisted.7月底的干预行动曾一度令日元盘中走强，升至155日元兑1美元。但涨势迅速消退，截至上周五，日元汇率约在159日元兑1美元。这一轮再度走软正逼近160日元关口，或将考验东京和华盛顿官员的决心，他们曾表示，若“无序的日元走势”持续，将毫不犹豫地再次干预。The reversal underscores the limits of one-off currency interventions while investors remain uneasy about Japan’s enormous debt burden, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s push for aggressive government spending and a perception that the Bank of Japan is raising interest rates too slowly.这一逆转凸显了一次性汇率干预的局限性，同时投资者仍对日本庞大的债务负担、首相高市早苗推动激进政府支出的立场，以及市场认为日本央行加息步伐过于缓慢的预期感到不安。“It’s no surprise that the yen has weakened again,” said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia Pacific at Capital Economics, an economic research firm. “Without change to the underlying story, the underlying fundamentals, there’s no reason to think that this intervention would have a lasting impact.”“日元再度走弱并不意外，”经济研究机构凯投宏观的亚太区主管马塞尔·蒂利安表示，“基本面没有改变，就没有理由认为此次干预会产生持久影响。”The yen’s long slide began in 2022, when the U.S. Federal Reserve rapidly raised interest rates to curb post-pandemic inflation while Japan’s central bank kept rates below zero. The widening gap made dollar-denominated assets more attractive, drawing money toward the United States and pushing down the yen. By mid-2023, U.S. interest rates were above 5 percent, while Japan kept its rates at –0.1 percent.日元的长期跌势始于2022年，当时美联储为遏制疫情后的通胀而快速加息，日本央行则维持负利率。不断扩大的利差使美元资产更具吸引力，资金流向美国，压低日元。到2023年年中，美国利率已高于5%，而日本利率仍保持在-0.1%。By 2024, the yen had weakened to about 150 per dollar, from around 110 in 2021. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates in 2024 for the first time in 17 years. Subsequent increases helped stabilize the currency, though at a historically weak level.到2024年，日元已从2021年的约110日元兑1美元走弱至约150日元。日本央行于2024年进行了17年来首次加息。此后的进一步加息有助于稳定汇率，但相比历史水平仍然疲弱。Then, in October 2025, Ms. Takaichi took office. From the outset, she championed low interest rates and aggressive government spending to spur investment and economic growth. Before her campaign, she had at one point called the prospect of the Bank of Japan’s raising interest rates “stupid.”随后，在2025年10月，高市早苗就任首相。从一开始，她就主张低利率和积极的政府支出以刺激投资和经济增长。在竞选前，她曾一度将日本央行加息的前景称为“愚蠢”。Her stance unsettled global investors already concerned about the sustainability of Japan’s public debt, which is more than twice the size of its economy.她的立场令已对日本公共债务可持续性感到担忧的全球投资者更加不安，日本债务规模已经超过经济总量的两倍。In recent months, Ms. Takaichi has abolished a gasoline tax surcharge and reinstated subsidies for electricity and fuel. Shortly after the U.S.-Japanese intervention in July, Ms. Takaichi’s government decided to cut the consumption tax rate on food to 1 percent, from 8 percent, for two years starting next spring.近几个月来，高市早苗取消了汽油税附加费，并恢复了电力和燃料补贴。在7月美日联合干预后不久，高市政府决定，从明年春季起将食品消费税率从8%下调至1%，为期两年。Economists say the forces driving the yen have also changed. While the currency had been weakening for years, its movements under Ms. Takaichi appear to have become less closely tied to interest rate differentials. Even as the Bank of Japan has continued raising rates, those increases have done little to strengthen the yen.经济学家表示，推动日元的因素也已发生变化。尽管日元多年来一直在走弱，但在高市早苗治下，其走势与利差的相关性似乎减弱。即使日本央行持续加息，也未能有效提振日元。Since 2024, the Bank of Japan has raised rates roughly once every six months, most recently in June. Expectations are growing that the central bank could act again at its next policy board meeting, in September.自2024年以来，日本央行大约每六个月加息一次，最近一次是在6月。市场预期央行可能在9月的下一次政策委员会会议上再次行动。5月，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特访问东京，与日本首相高市早苗会面。Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, has repeatedly signaled support for higher rates in Japan, telling public broadcaster NHK this month that he was confident the Bank of Japan would “do what is best” as a weak yen stoked inflation.美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特多次暗示支持日本提高利率，他本月对公共广播机构NHK表示，他相信日本央行会“做出最佳选择”，因为日元疲软会加剧通胀。Further rate increases could narrow the gap between Japanese and U.S. interest rates and relieve some pressure on the yen. But at some point, they could also make Japanese bonds more attractive to domestic investors, drawing money out of U.S. Treasuries, depressing their prices and raising borrowing costs for the United States.进一步加息可能缩小日美利差，缓解日元的部分压力。但在某一节点，这可能也会使日本国债对国内投资者更具吸引力，资金从美国国债流出，压低美债价格，从而推高美国的借贷成本。Highlighting the dilemma that policymakers face, concerns about blowback from a weak yen on U.S. interest rates are partly what motivated last month’s intervention. Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, and if the government was forced to sell more of its holdings to bolster the yen that could put upward pressure on U.S. rates.政策制定者面临的两难境地在于，对日元疲软可能推高美国利率的担忧正是上月干预行动的动因之一。日本是美国国债的最大海外持有国，若日本政府被迫抛售更多持仓以支撑日元，则可能给美债收益率带来上行压力。Treasury yields are already hovering near their highest levels in decades. On Thursday, the United States sold 30-year bonds at the highest yield since 2001.美债收益率已徘徊在数十年高位附近。上周四，美国以2001年以来最高收益率发行了30年期国债。The latest retreat in the yen leaves Tokyo and Washington confronting difficult questions: how they can sustainably support the yen, and how badly they want to.日元的最新回落令东京和华盛顿面临棘手问题：如何可持续地支撑日元，以及他们支撑日元的意愿有多强烈。Analysts at Bank of America have suggested that, alongside steady interest-rate increases, Japan could adopt measures to bring more capital home, including shifting a greater share of public pension assets into domestic investments.美国银行的分析师建议，在稳步加息同时，日本可采取多项措施将资本引回国内，包括将更大比例的公共养老金资产配置到国内投资。Others argue that the yen’s weakness could ease if fears of a fiscal crisis prove exaggerated and investors reassess the strength of Japan’s underlying finances. They note that the government’s investment income has been rising faster than debt service payments, and that Japan is among the few advanced economies where the ratio of debt to the size of the economy has been declining.另一些人则认为，若对财政危机的担忧被证明是夸大其词，且投资者重新评估日本基础财政的实力，日元疲软之势可能得到缓解。他们指出，政府的投资收益增速已超过偿债支出增速，且日本是少数几个债务与经济规模之比在下降的发达经济体之一。For now, however, uncertainty over how far Ms. Takaichi is prepared to push her spending ambitions continues to weigh on the yen. “There’s the underlying story still that people are worried about fiscal policy eventually becoming too loose, even if it’s not happening yet,” Mr. Thieliant said.然而，目前高市早苗在支出目标上的决心仍存在不确定性，这一点不断给日元制造压力。“根本性的担忧仍然存在，即人们担心财政政策最终会变得过于宽松，即使目前还没有发生，”蒂利安表示。River Akira Davis常驻东京，报道日本经济和商业新闻。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site