SPX #1: Channel Ceiling, Quarter Worth a Second LookS&P 500SPCFD:SPXKazimKarabacakI drew a Regression Trend on the S&P 500 daily chart, the starting anchor is 13 October 2022, and the details are at the end. Since October 2022 the earnings behind the index have risen, and according to the last published data the trailing twelve-month figure is at a record. The latest quarter is not a clean read on its own, because two index members booked large non-operating gains that lifted the aggregate. Price has stayed inside the regression channel almost the whole way. April 2025 is the exception, price went below the blue lower band of the regression channel and then came back inside. Price is now at the blue upper band of the regression channel, which is the same line as the lower edge of the upper cloned channel. I am watching the blue upper band of the regression channel, because it is the ceiling of the trend measured from 13 October 2022, and price is on it. Crossing it is not a small step. Above that line price is more than two standard deviations above the channel mean, and the reading moves to the upper cloned channel. Since October 2022 price has been outside the bands once, in April 2025, on the other side. What I read here is the index working in the upper half of the regression channel, under the blue upper band and above the blue dashed middle line. That reading stays valid as long as the daily closes hold above the blue dashed middle line of the regression channel. If the daily closes settle below the blue dashed middle line, the upper half reading is done for me. Method I drew a Regression Trend on the S&P 500 daily chart. The starting anchor is 13 October 2022. The bands are the tool's default two standard deviations, and the number on the chart is Pearson's R, 0.98. I cloned the channel once above and once below. The clone above sits directly on the regression channel, so the blue upper band of the regression channel is also the lower edge of the upper cloned channel, and the red upper line is the upper edge of the upper cloned channel.